IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/tudcep/0322.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates

Author

Listed:
  • de Boer, Jantke
  • Eichler, Stefan
  • Rövekamp, Ingmar

Abstract

We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate. We rationalize our results in a model where a debate victory of a protectionist candidate raises expectations about future tariffs and reduces future net exports to the US, resulting in relative depreciation of currencies with high bilateral trade integration.

Suggested Citation

  • de Boer, Jantke & Eichler, Stefan & Rövekamp, Ingmar, 2022. "Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates," CEPIE Working Papers 03/22, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tudcep:0322
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/266451/1/1822638119.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rates; US Presidential Elections; TV Debates; Protectionism; Bilateral Trade Integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:tudcep:0322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pltudde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.