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Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?

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  • Schmeling, Maik
  • Schrimpf, Andreas

Abstract

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability by virtue of a comprehensive set of expectations data, we find that money illusion seems to be the driving force behind our results. Another popular hypothesis - inflation as a proxy for aggregate risk aversion - is not supported by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-036, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2008-036
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; money illusion; proxy hypothesis; stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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