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Zur zyklischen Klassifikation der RWI-Prognose 1998-3 bis 2000-4

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  • Schäfer-Jäckel, Elke
  • Soyka, Dirk
  • Winkels, André

Abstract

Wie schon vor einem Jahr wurde die aktuelle Konjunkturprognose (Anfang 1999) in das RWI Klassifikationsschema eingeordnet. Danach liegt die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des Zeitraums 1998-3 bis 2000-4 im Grenzbereich zwischen Aufschwung und oberem Wendepunkt. Vor einem Jahr war die damalige Prognose für den Zeitraum 1997-3 bis 1999-4 dagegen eindeutig als Aufschwungphase eingeordnet worden. Detaillierte Simulations-, Verlaufs- und Sensitivitätsanalysen machen deutlich, daß hauptsächlich die derzeit sehr niedrigen Zinsen und Preissteigerungsraten für die Zuordnung verantwortlich sind. Werden für diese Variablen die typischen Werte einer Aufschwungphase angenommen, wird auch die aktuelle Prognose als Aufschwung klassifiziert.

Suggested Citation

  • Schäfer-Jäckel, Elke & Soyka, Dirk & Winkels, André, 1999. "Zur zyklischen Klassifikation der RWI-Prognose 1998-3 bis 2000-4," Technical Reports 1999,23, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:199923
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/77339/2/1999-23.pdf
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    1. Heilemann, Ullrich & Münch, Heinz Josef, 1998. "Cyclical classification of the RWI short term forecast: 1997-3 to 1999-4," Technical Reports 1998,16, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
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