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Non- and Semiparametric Identification of Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregression Models

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  • Yang, L.
  • Tschernig, R.

Abstract

Non- or semiparametric estimation and lag selection methods are proposed for three seasonal nonlinear autoregressive models of varying seasonal flexibility. All procedures are based on either local constant or local linear estimation. For the semiparametric models, after preliminary estimation of the seasonal parameters, the function estimation and lag selection are the same as nonparametric estimation and lag selection for standard models. A Monte Carlo study demonstrates good performance of all three methods. The semiparametric methods are applied to German real gross national product and UK public investment data. For these series our procedures provide evidence of nonlinear dynamics.
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Suggested Citation

  • Yang, L. & Tschernig, R., 1998. "Non- and Semiparametric Identification of Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregression Models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,114, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:1998114
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    Cited by:

    1. Chikhi, Mohamed & Terraza, Michel, 2002. "Un essai de prévision non paramétrique de l'action France Télécom [A nonparametric prediction test of the France Telecom stock proces]," MPRA Paper 77268, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2003.
    2. Yang, Lijian & Park, Byeong U. & Xue, Lan & Hardle, Wolfgang, 2006. "Estimation and Testing for Varying Coefficients in Additive Models With Marginal Integration," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1212-1227, September.
    3. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, January.
    4. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.
    5. CHIKHI, Mohamed, 2017. "Chocs exogènes et non linéarités dans les séries boursières: Application à la modélisation non paramétrique du cours de l'action Orange [Exogenous Shocks and nonlinearity in the stock exchange seri," MPRA Paper 76691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-047 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. CHIKHI, Mohamed, 2009. "Identification non paramétrique d’un processus non linéaire hétéroscédastique [Nonparametric identification of heteroscedastic nonlinear process]," MPRA Paper 82108, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    8. Tang, Ling & Yu, Lean & He, Kaijian, 2014. "A novel data-characteristic-driven modeling methodology for nuclear energy consumption forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Mohamed Chikhi & Ali Bendob, 2018. "Nonparametric NAR-ARCH Modelling of Stock Prices by the Kernel Methodology," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 2(2), pages 105-120.

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