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Der Neo-Fisher-Effekt: Die historische Alternative zur Nullzinspolitik

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  • Schefold, Bertram

Abstract

Die Europäische Zentral Bank hat am 6. Juni 2019 beschlossen, die Nullzinspolitik bis Mitte 2020 beizubehalten, obwohl mit dieser das Inflationsziel von 2% seit Jahren, in Japan seit Jahrzehnten, verfehlt wird. Nach dem Neo-Fisher-Effekt sollte, gegeben dieses Ziel, der Zins nicht gesenkt, sondern gehoben werden, weil die Inflationsrate der Differenz von Nominal- und langfristig stabilem Realzins entspricht. Zwar senken rasche Zinserhöhungen Nachfrage und Preise, aber daraus folgt nicht notwendig, dass niedrige Zinsen die Nachfrage anregen. Gemäß neueren Untersuchungen werden langsam durchgeführte Zinserhöhungen bei rationalen Erwartungen dagegen das Preisniveau heben. Der Aufsatz untersucht die begleitenden Verteilungswirkungen und stützt die These mit Überlegungen aus dem 19. Jahrhundert, wonach die gestiegenen Preise durch die Erhöhung der Zinskosten erklärt werden können.

Suggested Citation

  • Schefold, Bertram, 2019. "Der Neo-Fisher-Effekt: Die historische Alternative zur Nullzinspolitik," SAFE Policy Letters 74, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safepl:74
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    Cited by:

    1. Bertram Schefold, 2023. "New Results in Capital Theory and Implications for the Theory of Inflation," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(82), pages 27-51, November.

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    Keywords

    Inflation; Geldpolitik; Europäische Zentralbank; Zinsen;
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