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We could not care less about Armington elasticities - but should we? A meta-sensitivity analysis of the influence of Armington elasticity misspecification on simulation results

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  • Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah

Abstract

This paper investigates the robustness of CGE models with respect to the elasticities of substitution in demand between domestically produced goods and foreign goods - the so-called Armington elasticities. The Armington-type modeling of trade is still one of the most extensively used specifications in CGE modeling. For a long time the choice of the respective elasticities of substitution has not been given much attention. We resimulate 50 published CGE policy simulations each a 1000 times and randomize the elasticities. The results of this experiment clearly indicate that a change in the elasticities has noteworthy quantitative and qualitative effects on the results in more than half of the models. We thus conclude that the choice of the elasticities should get more attention and robustness of models with respect to elasticities should be tested by modellers.

Suggested Citation

  • Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2015. "We could not care less about Armington elasticities - but should we? A meta-sensitivity analysis of the influence of Armington elasticity misspecification on simulation results," Ruhr Economic Papers 594, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:594
    DOI: 10.4419/86788689
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bajzik, Josef, 2021. "Trading volume and stock returns: A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Oliveira, Paulo Felipe & Cordeiro, Pedro Antero, 2023. "Trade policy analysis in Brazil: Assessing welfare impacts with revised Armington elasticities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2016. "Are Armington elasticities different across countries and sectors? A European study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 328-342.
    4. Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2019. "Estimating the Armington Elasticity: The Importance of Data Choice and Publication Bias," Working Papers IES 2019/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2019.
    5. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2019. "The Elasticity of Substitution between Domestic and Foreign Goods: A Quantitative Survey," Working Papers 2019/12, Czech National Bank.
    7. Skelton, Alexandra C.H. & Paroussos, Leonidas & Allwood, Julian M., 2020. "Comparing energy and material efficiency rebound effects: an exploration of scenarios in the GEM-E3 macroeconomic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Armington; trade elasticities; computable general equilibrium; meta-study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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