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Financial Uncertainty in Germany and its Impact on Western European Terrorism

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  • Jovanovic, Mario

Abstract

This paper analyses the link between the VDAX as a proxy for European financial uncertainty and the number of terror incidents in Western Europe. Considering data of the Global Terrorism Database, the number of terror incidents does - on average - not affect financial uncertainty. In contrast, based on a behavioral model of terrorism motivated by Schmid and de Graaf (1982), lagged financial uncertainty contains information for the risk of terror events. Estimation results of the negative binominal quasi maximum likelihood count data model confirm an inverse impact of lagged financial uncertainty on terrorism. Furthermore, empirical evidence leads to the conclusion of average lead time for terror incidents of 6 month. These results are potentially important for terror prevention.

Suggested Citation

  • Jovanovic, Mario, 2011. "Financial Uncertainty in Germany and its Impact on Western European Terrorism," Ruhr Economic Papers 296, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:296
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VDAX; terror events; forecasting; count data; VDAX; terror events; forecasting; count data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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