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Erfahrung und Erinnerung als Konstituenten von Erwartungen im ökonomischen Kontext

Author

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  • Priddat, Birger P.

Abstract

Über die Zukunft wissen wir nichts. Keynes' Diktum gilt weiterhin, obschon wir vielfältigst prognostizieren. Dabei aber rekurrieren wir systematisch und statistisch auf alte Datenmuster und Erinnerungen. Erfahrungen bilden die Basis der Projektionen auf die Zukunft. Die Qualität der Erfahrungen ist prüfen, um über Erwartungen einigermaßen valide Aussagen zu machen. Beide - Erfahrungen wie Erwartungen - bilden ein Komplementärtheorem. So wie die Erwartungen als Fiktionen decodiert werden, so dann auch die Erfahrungen als je gegenwärtige Zurechtlegungen. In volatileren Welten entwerten die Erfahrungen und die Erwartungen müssen sich Narrative zulegen, die nicht mehr notwendig erfahrungsgekoppelt sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Priddat, Birger P., 2018. "Erfahrung und Erinnerung als Konstituenten von Erwartungen im ökonomischen Kontext," Working Papers 5, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:pp1859:5
    DOI: 10.18452/18968
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