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Bevölkerungsmodelle: Konzepte, Anwendungen, Erweiterungsmöglichkeiten

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  • Herrchen, Beate

Abstract

Das vorliegende Arbeitspapier stellt im ersten Teil verschiedene unter der Bezeichnung 'Rogersmodelle' in die Fachliteratur eingegangene Bevölkerungsmodelle vor. Diese Modelle berücksichtigen alle explizit die Migrationskomponente und ermöglichen daher Untersuchungen über das Verhalten der Bevölkerungsstruktur unter unterschiedlichen migrationsspezifischen Annahmen. Gleichzeitig wird jedoch auch auf die Grenzen dieser Modelle hingewiesen. Der zweite Teil schlägt ein sogenanntes 'Kontomodell' (accounting model) als Alternative zu den Modellen des ersten Teils vor. Aus diesem Modell läßt sich nicht nur das letzte der vorgestellten Rogersmodelle in seiner allgemeinsten Form gewinnen, sondern es vermittelt auch zusätzliche Informationen, die dem Analysten weiteren Aufschluß über die Bevölkerungsstruktur der beteiligten Länder geben können. Ein Ziel des Projektes der "Analyse von Gastarbeiterwanderungen in Europa" besteht darin, dieses Modell für den europäischen Raum anzuwenden. Grundlegende Literatur zu den Themen dieses Berichts findet sich insbesondere unter den Veröffentlichungen [1],[2],[3],[4],[5],[6] von P.H. Rees und A.G. Wilson.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrchen, Beate, 1989. "Bevölkerungsmodelle: Konzepte, Anwendungen, Erweiterungsmöglichkeiten," Discussion Papers, Series II 84, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:84
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P H Rees & A G Wilson, 1975. "Accounts and Models for Spatial Demographic Analysis 3: Rates and Life Tables," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 7(2), pages 199-231, April.
    2. Andrei Rogers, 1966. "The multiregional matrix growth operator and the stable interregional age structure," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(2), pages 537-544, June.
    3. P H Rees & A G Wilson, 1973. "Accounts and Models for Spatial Demographic Analysis I: Aggregate Population," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 5(1), pages 61-90, February.
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