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Fehleranalyse von Bevölkerungsprognosen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Migration

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  • Bruns, Gerd

Abstract

Die Untersuchlang befaßt sich mit der Güte von Bevölkerungsprognosen für 101 Länder von 1960 bis 1980. In einem einführenden Kapitel erfolgt die Abgrenzung und die Vorstellung der Problematik. Anschließend werden verschiedene Prognosefehlermaße vorgestellt und deren Interpretation erläutert. Der logarithmische Prognosefehler wird im Kapitel 3 dazu benutzt, Abhängigkeiten von Prognosegüte und verschiedenen Einflußfaktoren zu untersuchen. Speziell werden die Migration, der Prognosezeitraum und einige länderspezifische Kenngrößen auf ihre Abhängigkeit zur Prognosegüte hin analysiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruns, Gerd, 1991. "Fehleranalyse von Bevölkerungsprognosen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Migration," Discussion Papers, Series II 145, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:145
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    1. Jöckel, Karl-Heinz & Pflaumer, Peter, 1984. "Calculating the variance of errors in population forecasting," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 211-213, August.
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