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IW monetary outlook December 2015: Weak credit growth hinders eurozone inflation to increase

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  • Hüther, Michael
  • Demary, Markus

Abstract

While the ECB still struggles with an impaired bank lending channel of monetary transmission, the Fed successfully fought the labor market slack that was caused by the great recession of 2008. Due to the improved labor market, the Fed can now start its gradual interest rate lift-off. The ECB will increase its stance of policy accommodation instead, since low interest rates still do not translate into higher inflation. On the contrary, inflation and interest rates are decreasing in tandem. The reason for the impaired monetary transmission channel was originally the banking and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, but the impairment of monetary transmission is now caused by banks’ reduction in risk-weighted assets, which are an effect of the implementation of the new Basel III capital ratios. Instead of lending to businesses and households banks increased their exposure to sovereigns. This effect is due to the preferential treatment of sovereign debt in bank regulation and is exacerbated by the low interest rate environment. As long as credit growth does not contribute to the growth of money, reducing interest rates even further will not bring inflation back to its target value. [...]

Suggested Citation

  • Hüther, Michael & Demary, Markus, 2015. "IW monetary outlook December 2015: Weak credit growth hinders eurozone inflation to increase," IW policy papers 37/2015, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:372015
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    Cited by:

    1. Diermeier, Matthias & Goecke, Henry, 2016. "Money supply and inflation in Europe: Is there still a connection?," IW policy papers 17/2016E, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    2. Diermeier, Matthias & Goecke, Henry, 2016. "Geldmenge und Inflation in Europa: Ist der Zusammenhang verloren?," IW policy papers 17/2016, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    3. Klaus Wiener & Rolf Ketzler, 2016. "Versicherungswirtschaft und Niedrigzinsumfeld: Risiken, Nebenwirkungen und Anpassungsstrategien," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 85(1), pages 65-79.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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