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Regionale Effekte einer durch einen Lieferstopp für russisches Gas ausgelösten Rezession in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Lindner, Axel
  • Schult, Christoph

Abstract

Ein Stopp der russischen Gaslieferungen würde zu einer Rezession der deutschen Wirtschaft führen. Nicht alle Regionen wären davon gleich betroffen: Vor allem wäre dort, wo das Verarbeitende Gewerbe ein großes Gewicht hat, mit einem deutlich stärkeren Einbruch der Wirtschaftsleistung zu rechnen als andernorts. Deshalb wäre Westdeutschland und dort insbesondere der Süden stärker betroffen als der Osten Deutschlands. Dagegen spielt für die Frage, wie viele Arbeitsplätze durch einen bestimmten Rückgang der Wertschöpfung gefährdet sind, die Höhe der Arbeitsproduktivität eine ausschlaggebende Rolle.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel & Schult, Christoph, 2022. "Regionale Effekte einer durch einen Lieferstopp für russisches Gas ausgelösten Rezession in Deutschland," IWH Policy Notes 1/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhpno:12022
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann & Christoph Schult, 2024. "Auswirkung eines potenziellen Gasdefizits auf die industrielle Wertschöpfung der Bundesländer," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 31(06), pages 15-16, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Erdgas; Prognose; Regionalstruktur;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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