IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/iwhonl/112015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Electoral Credit Supply Cycles Among German Savings Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Gropp, Reint E.
  • Saadi, Vahid

Abstract

In this note we document political lending cycles for German savings banks. We find that savings banks on average increase supply of commercial loans by €7.6 million in the year of a local election in their respective county or municipality (Kommunalwahl). For all savings banks combined this amounts to €3.4 billion (0.4% of total credit supply in Germany in a complete electoral cycle) more credit in election years. Credit growth at savings banks increases by 0.7 percentage points, which corresponds to a 40% increase relative to non-election years. Consistent with this result, we also find that the performance of the savings banks follows the same electoral cycle. The loans that the savings banks generate during election years perform worse in the first three years of maturity and loan losses tend to be realized in the middle of the election cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Gropp, Reint E. & Saadi, Vahid, 2015. "Electoral Credit Supply Cycles Among German Savings Banks," IWH Online 11/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhonl:112015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/142212/1/io_2015-11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    2. Sapienza, Paola, 2004. "The effects of government ownership on bank lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 357-384, May.
    3. Pat Akey, 2015. "Valuing Changes in Political Networks: Evidence from Campaign Contributions to Close Congressional Elections," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3188-3223.
    4. Daniel Carvalho, 2014. "The Real Effects of Government-Owned Banks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 577-609, April.
    5. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    6. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2005. "Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1371-1411.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koetter, Michael & Müller, Carola & Noth, Felix & Fritz, Benedikt, 2018. "May the force be with you: Exit barriers, governance shocks, and profitability sclerosis in banking," Discussion Papers 49/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2022. "The effects of German economic and political progress on the Sparkassen savings bank system," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anne-Laure Delatte & Adrien Matray & Noémie Pinardon-Touati, 2020. "Private Credit Under Political Influence: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2020-56, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Wagner, Wolf & Lambert, Thomas & Zhang, Eden Quxian, 2020. "Banks, Political Capital, and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Karsten Müller, 2023. "Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 295-322, November.
    4. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
    5. Faraz, Naseem & Rockmore, Marc, 2020. "Election cycles in public credit: Credit provision and default rates in Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
    7. Englmaier, Florian & Roider, Andreas & Stowasser, Till & Hinreiner, Lisa, 2017. "Power Politics: Electoral Cycles in German Electricity Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168267, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Lending cycles and real outcomes: Costs of political misalignment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Andreas Kern & Puspa Amri, 2021. "Political credit cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 76-108, March.
    11. Zareh Asatryan & Annika Havlik, 2020. "The political economy of multilateral lending to European regions," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 707-740, July.
    12. Marianne Bertrand & Francis Kramarz & Antoinette Schoar & David Thesmar, 2018. "The Cost of Political Connections," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 849-876.
    13. Randall Morck & M. Deniz Yavuz & Bernard Yeung, 2019. "State-Run Banks, Money Growth, and the Real Economy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5914-5932, December.
    14. Kumar, Nitish, 2020. "Political interference and crowding out in bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    15. Gabriel Jiménez & José-Luis Peydró & Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Burning Money? Government Lending in a Credit Crunch," Working Papers 984, Barcelona School of Economics.
    16. Kang, Shulong & Dong, Jianfeng & Yu, Haiyue & Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya, 2021. "City commercial banks and credit allocation: Firm-level evidence," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Ozlem Akin & Nicholas S. Coleman & Christian Fons-Rosen & José-Luis Peydró, 2016. "Political Connections: Evidence From Insider Trading Around TARP," Working Papers 935, Barcelona School of Economics.
    18. Saibal Ghosh, 2018. "Electoral Cycles and Project Outcomes," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 527-552, June.
    19. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Schoors, Koen & Solanko, Laura & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Staying on top: Political cycles in private bank lending," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 899-917.
    20. Li, Xiang, 2022. "The role of state-owned banks in crises: Evidence from German banks during COVID-19," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2022.
    21. Gao, Haoyu & Ru, Hong & Tang, Dragon Yongjun, 2021. "Subnational debt of China: The politics-finance nexus," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 881-895.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    German savings banks; municipality;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhonl:112015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwhhhde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.