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Berücksichtigung von Schätzunsicherheit bei der Kreditrisikobewertung: Vergleich des Value at Risk der Verlustverteilung des Kreditrisikos bei Verwendung von Bootstrapping und einem asymptotischen Ansatz

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  • Dannenberg, Henry

Abstract

Bei der Kreditrisikobewertung müssen die Parameter Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit und korrelation geschätzt werden. Diese Schätzung erfolgt unter Unsicherheit. In der Literatur werden asymptotische Konfidenzregionen diskutiert, um diese Unsicherheit bei der simultanen Schätzung beider Parameter zu bewerten. Diese Regionen setzen allerdings eine sehr lange Datenhistorie für eine genaue Bewertung voraus. Als Alternative bietet sich bei kurzen Datenhistorien Bootstrapping an. Diese Methode ist allerdings deutlich rechenintensiver. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird untersucht, ab welcher Anzahl historisch verfügbarer Perioden Bootstrapping und eine WaldKonfidenzregion zu einer vergleichbaren Bewertung des Kreditrisikos gelangen. Die hier genutzten Methoden führen zu ähnlichen Ergebnissen, wenn über 100 historische Perioden zur Verfügung stehen.

Suggested Citation

  • Dannenberg, Henry, 2009. "Berücksichtigung von Schätzunsicherheit bei der Kreditrisikobewertung: Vergleich des Value at Risk der Verlustverteilung des Kreditrisikos bei Verwendung von Bootstrapping und einem asymptotischen Ans," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-3-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamerle, Alfred & Knapp, Michael & Liebig, Thilo & Wildenauer, Nicole, 2005. "Incorporating prediction and estimation risk in point-in-time credit portfolio models," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Miao W. & Gastwirth J.L., 2004. "The Effect of Dependence on Confidence Intervals for a Population Proportion," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 58, pages 124-130, May.
    3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kreditrisikobewertung; Konfidenzregion; Schätzunsicherheit; Bootstrapping; confidence region; credit portfolio risk; estimation uncertainty; bootstrapping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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