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A Machine Learning Based Regulatory Risk Index for Cryptocurrencies

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  • Ni, Xinwen
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Xie, Taojun

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies’ values often respond aggressively to major policy changes, but none of the existing indices informs on the market risks associated with regulatory changes. In this paper, we quantify the risks originating from new regulations on FinTech and cryptocurrencies (CCs), and analyse their impact on market dynamics. Specifically, a Cryptocurrency Regulatory Risk IndeX (CRRIX) is constructed based on policy-related news coverage frequency. The unlabeled news data are collected from the top online CC news platforms and further classified using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation model and Hellinger distance. Our results show that the machine-learning-based CRRIX successfully captures major policy-changing moments. The movements for both the VCRIX, a market volatility index, and the CRRIX are synchronous, meaning that the CRRIX could be helpful for all participants in the cryptocurrency market. The algorithms and Python code are available for research purposes on www.quantlet.de.

Suggested Citation

  • Ni, Xinwen & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Xie, Taojun, 2020. "A Machine Learning Based Regulatory Risk Index for Cryptocurrencies," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-013, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2020013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zinovyev, Elizaveta & Reule, Raphael C. G. & Härdle, Wolfgang, 2021. "Understanding Smart Contracts: Hype or hope?," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-004, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    2. Cristina Sbirneciu & Nicoleta Valentina Florea, 2023. "Evaluating the Impact of Emerging Technologies on the ECB's Mandate: Can the European Central Bank Use Distributed Ledger Technology and Digital Euro to Advance Financial Inclusion in Europe?," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 1059-1070, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrency; Regulatory Risk; Index; LDA; News Classification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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