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Weltwirtschaft im Winter 2021 - Gebremste Expansion
[World Economy Winter 2021 - Temporary slowdown]

Author

Listed:
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Reents, Jan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft hat nach der Jahresmitte an Fahrt verloren. In vielen Teilen der Welt bremsten erneut zunehmende Corona-Infektionen die wirtschaftliche Aktivität, Lieferengpässe behinderten den Aufschwung der Industrieproduktion, und die chinesische Wirtschaft scheint aus dem Tritt geraten zu sein. Die Unsicherheit über die Auswirkungen der neuen Omikron-Variante des Coronavirus auf die Konjunktur sind groß. Wir rechnen damit, dass die wirtschaftliche Aktivität in den nächsten Monaten merklich gedämpft wird, im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres 2022 die weltwirtschaftliche Erholung sich aber wieder durchsetzt. Für das kommende Jahr erwarten wir einen Zuwachs der Weltproduktion (gemessen auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten) um 4,5 Prozent, nach einem Zuwachs um 5,7 Prozent in diesem Jahr. Damit haben wir unsere Septemberprognose um 0,5 (2022) bzw. 0,2 Prozentpunkte (2021) reduziert. Für das Jahr 2023 haben wir unsere Erwartung hingegen leicht von 3,8 auf 4 Prozent angehoben. Die Inflation dürfte derzeit ihren Höhepunkt erreicht haben und im Prognosezeitraum deutlich zurückgehen, was vor allem an der Energiepreiskomponente liegt. Der zugrundeliegende Preisauftrieb dürfte über den gesamten Prognosezeitraum deutlich höher bleiben als vor der Krise.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kooths, Stefan & Reents, Jan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2021. "Weltwirtschaft im Winter 2021 - Gebremste Expansion [World Economy Winter 2021 - Temporary slowdown]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 85, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:85
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/249739/1/KKB-85-2021-Q4-Welt-DE.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2021. "Has China's Housing Production Peaked?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 1-31, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Meuchelböck, Saskia & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2021. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Winter 2021 - Erholung vorerst ausgebremst [German Economy Winter 2021 - Recovery temporarily on hold]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 86, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften; Schwellenländer; Geldpolitik; COVID19;
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