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Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2020 - Potenzialwachstum von Corona-V(irus) kaum berührt

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Mösle, Saskia
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials, also das bei Normalauslastung aller Produktionsfaktoren erzielbare Bruttoinlandsprodukt, lässt zunehmend nach und dürfte in der Mitte des kommenden Jahrzehnts nur noch knapp 1 Prozent betragen. Aufgrund der Alterung der Bevölkerung gehen von der Entwicklung des Arbeitskräfteangebots erst kaum noch positive und zum Ende der Mittelfrist sogar negative Impulse auf das Potenzialwachstum aus. Da die aktuelle Corona-Pandemie unserer Einschätzung nach zwar zu einer scharfen Rezession, aber schnellen anschließenden Erholung in Deutschland führen wird, rechnen wir nicht mit dauerhaften Auswirkungen auf das Produktionspotenzial. Eine länger währende Krise und insbesondere falsche wirtschaftspolitische Reaktionen darauf, können aber das Produktionspotenzial beschädigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2020 - Potenzialwachstum von Corona-V(irus) kaum berührt," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 66, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:66
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 193965, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2020 - Weltwirtschaft im Stresstest [World Economy Spring 2020 - World economy under strain]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 63, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Keywords

    Produktionslücke; Produktionspotenzial; Mittelfristprojektion; Totale Faktorproduktivität;
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