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Konjunktur im Euroraum im Herbst 2017 - Wirtschaft im Euroraum kommt in Fahrt
[Euro Area Autumn 2017 - The economy in the euro area is picking up speed]

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die Konjunktur im Euroraum hat offenbar einen Gang hochgeschaltet. Nachdem sich bereits seit Mitte des Jahres 2016 einige Stimmungsindikatoren deutlich aufgehellt hatten, zeugen nun auch kräftigere Zuwachsraten des Bruttoinlandsproduktes von einer beschleunigten konjunkturellen Grundtendenz. Wir erwarten für das laufende Jahr eine Zunahme des Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 2,2 Prozent. In den kommenden beiden Jahren dürfte die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion mit Raten von 2,1 und 1,9 Prozent nur geringfügig schwächer zulegen. Politische Risiken im Prognosezeitraum erscheinen vor dem Hintergrund der dynamischen Konjunktur und weiter sinkender Arbeitslosigkeit derzeit insgesamt weniger bedrohlich. Gleichwohl bergen beispielsweise die bevorstehenden EU-Austrittsverhandlungen mit dem Vereinigten Königreich und die italienischen Parlamentswahlen im Frühjahr 2018 das Potenzial, den europäischen Konjunkturmotor ins Stottern zu brin-gen. Einstweilen sind die Auftriebskräfte aber intakt - viele Frühindikatoren lassen eine Fortsetzung der kräftigen Expansion erwarten, die Konjunktur wird weiterhin durch niedrige Zinsen unterstützt und die Finanzpolitik ist im Prognosezeitraum wohl leicht expansiv ausgerichtet. Inzwischen liegt auch der allgemeine Preisauftrieb wieder deutlich oberhalb von einem Prozent.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Herbst 2017 - Wirtschaft im Euroraum kommt in Fahrt [Euro Area Autumn 2017 - The economy in the euro area is picking up speed]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 34, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:34
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2017 - Weltkonjunktur im Aufwind [World Economy Summer 2017 - Sustained acceleration of the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 31, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Harold James & Jean-Pierre Landau, 2016. "The Euro and the Battle of Ideas," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10828.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2017 - Weltwirtschaft im Aufschwung [World Economy Autumn 2017 - World economy in full swing]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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