The green revolution and the trade prospects in selected cereals for the developing countries

The developing countries which had been the net exporters of cereals vis-a-vis the developed countries in the 1930s have gradually turned into net importers over the last few decades. If the ,,green revolution" is able to persist, the net food importing regions of Asia may become self sufficient in foodgrains in the near future. In fact, available evidence already indicate a certain degree of recovery in food production in many of these countries. The net rice exporting countries in south east Asia will presumably find it increasingly difficult to maintain their market in other developing countries. This is because, with the increase in domestic production, the import demand in the net rice importing regions can be expected to fall proportionately. Self sufficiency in wheat production will mainly affect the net import demand from the developed countries. There appears to be a strong case for product and export diversification in those developing countries which depend heavily on cereals export. The scope for more trade in cereals within the developing countries will depend to a large extent on the willingness of the developed countries to withdraw from competition.