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Beyond quantified ignorance: Rebuilding rationality without the bias bias

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  • Brighton, Henry

Abstract

If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question shifts from being axiomatic/probabilistic in nature to being algorithmic/ predictive in nature. These distinct views on rationalitymirror fundamental and longstanding divisions in statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Brighton, Henry, 2019. "Beyond quantified ignorance: Rebuilding rationality without the bias bias," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201925
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cognitive science; rationality; ecological rationality; bounded rationality; bias bias; bias/variance dilemma; Bayesianism; machine learning; pattern recognition; decision making under uncertainty; unquantifiable uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection

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