IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201834.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rates expectations and chaotic dynamics: A replication study

Author

Listed:
  • Belaire-Franch, Jorge

Abstract

In this paper the author analyzes the behavior of exchange rates expectations for four currencies, by considering a re-calculation and an extension of Resende and Zeidan (Expectations and chaotic dynamics: empirical evidence on exchange rates, Economics Letters, 2008). Considering Lyapunov exponent-based tests results, they are not supportive of chaos in exchange rates expectations, although the so-called 0-1 test strongly supports the chaos hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Belaire-Franch, Jorge, 2018. "Exchange rates expectations and chaotic dynamics: A replication study," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-34, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201834
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2018-34
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/177837/1/1019374268.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shintani, Mototsugu & Linton, Oliver, 2004. "Nonparametric neural network estimation of Lyapunov exponents and a direct test for chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 1-33, May.
    2. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodriguez & Julián Andrada-Félix, 2005. "Testing chaotic dynamics via Lyapunov exponents," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 911-930.
    3. Resende, Marcelo & Zeidan, Rodrigo M., 2008. "Expectations and chaotic dynamics: Empirical evidence on exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 33-35, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Park, Joon Y. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2012. "Random walk or chaos: A formal test on the Lyapunov exponent," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 61-74.
    2. Bask, Mikael, 2010. "Measuring potential market risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 180-186, September.
    3. Matilla-García, Mariano & Marín, Manuel Ruiz, 2010. "A new test for chaos and determinism based on symbolic dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 600-614, December.
    4. Bask, Mikael & Widerberg, Anna, 2009. "Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 278-288, March.
    5. Matilla-Garci­a, Mariano & Ruiz Mari­n, Manuel, 2008. "A non-parametric independence test using permutation entropy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 139-155, May.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bask, Mikael, 2010. "Measuring potential market risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 180-186, September.
    8. Lorenzo Trapani, 2021. "Testing for strict stationarity in a random coefficient autoregressive model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 220-256, April.
    9. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    10. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    11. Vitaliy Vandrovych, 2005. "Study of Nonlinearities in the Dynamics of Exchange Rates: Is There Any Evidence of Chaos?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 234, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Dominique Guégan & Justin Leroux, 2008. "Local Lyapunov exponents: Zero plays no role in Forecasting chaotic systems," Cahiers de recherche 08-10, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    13. Serletis, Apostolos & Uritskaya, Olga Y., 2007. "Detecting signatures of stochastic self-organization in US money and velocity measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 385(1), pages 281-291.
    14. Lucía Inglada-Pérez & Sandra González y Gil, 2024. "A Study on the Nature of Complexity in the Spanish Electricity Market Using a Comprehensive Methodological Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    15. DIMA, Bogdan & DIMA, Ştefana Maria & IOAN, Roxana, 2021. "Remarks on the behaviour of financial market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic. The case of VIX," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    16. Matilla-Garcia, Mariano, 2007. "A non-parametric test for independence based on symbolic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3889-3903, December.
    17. Miia Bask & Mikael Bask, 2015. "Cumulative (Dis)Advantage and the Matthew Effect in Life-Course Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-14, November.
    18. Dominique Guegan & Justin Leroux, 2009. "Forecasting chaotic systems: The role of local Lyapunov exponents," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00431726, HAL.
    19. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "A dynamic factor approach to nonlinear stability analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2788-2808, September.
    20. Xu, Fei & Lai, Yongzeng & Shu, Xiao-Bao, 2018. "Chaos in integer order and fractional order financial systems and their synchronization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 125-136.
    21. Wolff Rodney & Yao Qiwei & Tong Howell, 2004. "Statistical Tests for Lyapunov Exponents of Deterministic Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-19, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    deterministic chaos; exchange rates; expectations; Lyapunov exponents; 0-1 test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.