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Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output in Tunisia

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  • Hachicha, Ahmed
  • Lean Hooi Hooi

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output in Tunisia using real and nominal data. GARCH-in-mean model with lagged variance equation is employed for the analysis. The result shows that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation only in the real term. Moreover, inflation uncertainty Granger-causes inflation and economic growth respectively. These results have important implications for the monetary policy in Tunisia.

Suggested Citation

  • Hachicha, Ahmed & Lean Hooi Hooi, 2013. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output in Tunisia," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:20131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Ndoricimpa, Arcade, 2015. "Inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in South Africa: Empirical evidence from an asymmetric multivariate GARCH-M model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 5-17.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH-M model; inflation; inflation uncertainty; output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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