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Abschätzung des Rückpralleffekts für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Euroraum

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  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Das teilweise Hochfahren der stillgelegten Wirtschaftsbereiche nach dem Lockdown im Frühjahr ist eine ungewöhnliche Situation. Quantitative Modelle, die sich als wesentliche erklärende Variable auf einen Stimmungsindikator stützen, liefern derzeit womöglich keine verlässlichen Prognosen für die zu erwartende Produktionsausweitung im dritten Quartal, denn der Zusammenhang der Zeitreihen wird auf Basis einer Vergangenheit geschätzt, die maßgeblich von der gegenwärtigen Situation abweicht.

Suggested Citation

  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Abschätzung des Rückpralleffekts für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Euroraum," Kiel Insight 2020.12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:202012
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