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The Rockets and Feathers of Inflation Attention

Author

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  • Korenok, Oleg
  • Munro, David

Abstract

Prior research has documented that attention to inflation shifts when inflation surpasses a 3-4% threshold. In this note we examine how attention to inflation declines in episodes of disinflation. We show that for countries where inflation has returned to "normal" (pre-threshold) levels, attention remains 2-3 times higher than it was before the run-up of inflation. We show evidence that wage growth is more strongly correlated with past inflation when attention is high. This is one possible mechanism behind the slower-than-expected disinflation in late 2023 and early 2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Korenok, Oleg & Munro, David, 2024. "The Rockets and Feathers of Inflation Attention," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1463, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1463
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/300348/1/GLO-DP-1463.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Jeremy B. Rudd, 2022. "Why do we think that inflation expectations matter for inflation? (And should we?)," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 25-45, January.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; attention; persistence; threshold;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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