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The Effects of DR-CAFTA in Nicaragua A CGE-Microsimulation Model for Poverty and Inequality Analysis

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  • Colombo, Giulia

Abstract

In this paper, we build a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-microsimulation model for the economy of Nicaragua following the Top-Down approach (see Bourguignon et al., 2003), that is, the reform is simulated first at the macro level with the CGE model, and then it is passed onto the microsimulation model through a vector of changes in some chosen variables, such as prices, wage rates, and unemployment levels. This approach appears to be particularly suited to the policy reform we are willing to simulate with the model: the Free Trade Agreement of Central America with the USA is mainly a macroeconomic reform, which on the other hand can have important effects on the distribution of income. With such a model we try to study the possible changes in the distribution of income deriving from the Free Trade Agreement with USA. Our analysis finds only small changes both in the main macroeconomic variables and in the distribution of income and poverty indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Colombo, Giulia, 2008. "The Effects of DR-CAFTA in Nicaragua A CGE-Microsimulation Model for Poverty and Inequality Analysis," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 6, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec08:6
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    1. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    2. Maurizio Bussolo & Jann Lay, 2003. "Globalisation and Poverty Changes in Colombia," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 226, OECD Publishing.
    3. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 697-734, December.
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    5. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Cockburn, John, 2004. "Trade Reform and Poverty in the Philippines: A Computable General Equilibrium Microsimulation Analysis," Conference papers 331176, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2002. "Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
    8. Luc Savard, 2003. "Poverty and Income Distribution in a CGE-Household Micro-Simulation Model: Top-Down/Bottom Up Approach," Cahiers de recherche 0343, CIRPEE.
    9. James B. Davies, 2004. "Microsimulation, CGE and Macro Modelling for Transition and Developing Economies," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2004-08, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Arntz, Melanie & Boeters, Stefan & Gürtzgen, Nicole & Schubert, Stefanie, 2008. "Analysing welfare reform in a microsimulation-AGE model: The value of disaggregation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 422-439, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Frey, 2013. "The Effects of the EU-Ukraine FTA: An Inequality Analysis using a CGE-Microsimulation Model for Ukraine," EcoMod2013 5587, EcoMod.
    2. Stefan Boeters & Luc Savard, 2011. "The Labour Market in CGE Models," Cahiers de recherche 11-20, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    3. Estrades, Carmen & Traore, Fousseini & Djiofack Zebaze, Calvin & Cardozo, Adriana, 2015. "DR-CAFTA Agreement and liberalization of trade in services: Evidence from Costa Rica," Conference papers 332581, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Rana Hendy & Chahir Zaki, 2013. "Assessing the Effects of Trade Liberalization on Wage Inequalities in Egypt: A Microsimulation Analysis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 63-104, March.
    5. Rana HENDY & Chahir ZAKI, 2009. "Rethinking the Redistribution Effects of Trade Liberalization in Egypt : A Microsimulation Analysis," Working Papers 2009-23, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1645-1718, Elsevier.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE models; microsimulation; income distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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