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Älter gleich kränker? Auswirkungen des Zugewinns an Lebenserwartung auf die Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit

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  • Hackmann, Tobias
  • Moog, Stefan

Abstract

Bei bisherigen Vorausberechnungen der zukünftigen Anzahl an Pflegefällen wurde meist vereinfachend unterstellt, dass die altersspezifische Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit (Prävalenz) in Zukunft konstant bleibt. Diese in der Wissenschaft als Status quo Hypothese bezeichnete Annahme ist allerdings nicht unumstritten. So ist bis heute nicht abschließend geklärt, wie sich der zu erwartende Zugewinn an Lebenserwartung auf die Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit im Alter auswirkt. Im folgenden Beitrag wird dem Leser durch die Analyse bisheriger empirischer Befunde zunächst ein Anhaltspunkt gegeben, ob in Zukunft eher mit einer Ab- oder Zunahme der Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit zu rechnen ist. Anschließend wird anhand eines Stromgrößenmodells aufgezeigt welche Bedingungen vorliegen müssen, damit es zu einem Anstieg oder Absinken der Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit kommt. Hierauf aufbauend wird ein Korridor bestimmt, in dem sich die zukünftige Anzahl an Pflegefällen bewegt.

Suggested Citation

  • Hackmann, Tobias & Moog, Stefan, 2008. "Älter gleich kränker? Auswirkungen des Zugewinns an Lebenserwartung auf die Pflegewahrscheinlichkeit," FZG Discussion Papers 26, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:26
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    1. Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel & Andreas Werblow, 2006. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: Is Long-term Care Different?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(V), pages 43-48.
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    3. Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126.
    4. Peter Zweifel, 2006. "The economics of Long-term Care," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(V), pages 1-2.
    5. Breyer, Friedrich & Felder, Stefan, 2006. "Life expectancy and health care expenditures: A new calculation for Germany using the costs of dying," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 178-186, January.
    6. Office of Health Economics, 2007. "The Economics of Health Care," For School 001490, Office of Health Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Otto, Anne & Pohl, Carsten, 2012. "Der zukünftige Bedarf an Arbeitskräften im Bereich der Altenpflege in Rheinland-Pfalz und im Saarland : Modellrechnungen für die Länder bis zum Jahr 2030," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Rheinland-Pfalz-Saarland 201203, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Pohl, Carsten, 2011. "Der zukünftige Bedarf an Pflegearbeitskräften in Nordrhein-Westfalen : Modellrechnungen auf Kreisebene bis zum Jahr 2030," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nordrhein-Westfalen 201102, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Pohl, Carsten & Sujata, Uwe & Weyh, Antje, 2012. "Der zukünftige Bedarf an Pflegearbeitskräften in Sachsen : Modellrechnungen auf Kreisebene bis zum Jahr 2030," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen 201202, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Hackmann, Tobias & Moog, Stefan, 2008. "Pflege im Spannungsfeld von Angebot und Nachfrage," FZG Discussion Papers 33, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pflegeversicherung; Mortalität; Kompression; Medikalisierung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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