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Aufkommens-, Beschäftigungs- und Wachstumswirkungen einer Steuerreform nach dem Vorschlag von Mitschke
[Revenue, employment and growth effects of the tax reform proposal by Mitschke]

Author

Listed:
  • Fuest, Clemens
  • Peichl, Andreas
  • Schaefer, Thilo

Abstract

Das vorliegende Gutachten untersucht die Auswirkungen einer Neuordnung des deutschen Ertragsteuersystems nach dem Vorschlag von Joachim Mitschke (2004) auf Steueraufkommen, Beschäftigung und Wirtschaftswachstum. Grundlage der Analyse ist das Steuer-Transfer-Simulationsmodell FiFoSiM des Finanzwissenschaftlichen Forschungsinstituts. Der Mitschke-Vorschlag unterscheidet zwischen einer Einführungsphase und einer Endphase. Für beide Phasen werden die langfristigen Aufkommens- und Beschäftigungs- und Wachstumswirkungen untersucht. Die Aufkommenswirkungen werden zunächst unter der Annahme untersucht, dass es keine Anpassungsreaktionen der Wirtschaftssubjekte gibt. In einem zweiten Schritt werden diese Anpassungsreaktionen untersucht - vor allem die Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigung und Gesamtproduktion. Der Übergang vom bestehenden Steuersystem zur Neuordnung in der Variante der Einführungsphase würde zu Steuerausfällen in Höhe von € 2 Mrd. führen, beim Übergang zur Endphase käme es zu einem Aufkommensverlust von € 13 Mrd. Auf der anderen Seite würde die Steuerreform in der Einführungsphase die Beschäftigung um 370.000 Vollzeitarbeitsplätze und das Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 1,1% steigern. In der Endphase ergibt sich ein Anstieg der Beschäftigung um 540.000 Arbeitsplätze, das BIP würde um 1,7 % ansteigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo, 2005. "Aufkommens-, Beschäftigungs- und Wachstumswirkungen einer Steuerreform nach dem Vorschlag von Mitschke [Revenue, employment and growth effects of the tax reform proposal by Mitschke]," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 5, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fifore:5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Siemers, Lars-H. R. & Zöller, Daniel, 2006. "Das Übergangsmodell der Einfachsteuer: Eine Effiziente Unternehmensbesteuerung?," MPRA Paper 757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fuest, Clemens & Heilmann, Sven & Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo & Bergs, Christian, 2006. "Aufkommens-, Beschäftigungs- und Wachstumswirkungen einer Reform des Steuer- und Transfersystems nach dem Bürgergeld-Vorschlag von Joachim Mitschke [Revenue, employment and growth effects of the in," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 8, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    3. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models — Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 301-329, November.
    4. Andreas PEICHL, 2008. "The Benefits of Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," EcoMod2008 23800106, EcoMod.
    5. Jung, Anna & Thöne, Michael & Elschner, Christina & Ernst, Christof & Overesch, Michael & Bergs, Christian & Schaefer, Thilo, 2009. "Evaluierung von Steuervergünstigungen. Band 3: Evaluierungsberichte (zweiter Teilband). Endfassung (Herbst 2009). Forschungsauftrag Projektnummer 15/07 des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110522.
    6. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas, 2006. "Documentation FiFoSiM: integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-10, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Steuerreform; Simulationsanalysen; Mitschke-Konzept; Tax reform; tax simulation; Mitschke-proposal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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