IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fifore/5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aufkommens-, Beschäftigungs- und Wachstumswirkungen einer Steuerreform nach dem Vorschlag von Mitschke
[Revenue, employment and growth effects of the tax reform proposal by Mitschke]

Author

Listed:
  • Fuest, Clemens
  • Peichl, Andreas
  • Schaefer, Thilo

Abstract

Das vorliegende Gutachten untersucht die Auswirkungen einer Neuordnung des deutschen Ertragsteuersystems nach dem Vorschlag von Joachim Mitschke (2004) auf Steueraufkommen, Beschäftigung und Wirtschaftswachstum. Grundlage der Analyse ist das Steuer-Transfer-Simulationsmodell FiFoSiM des Finanzwissenschaftlichen Forschungsinstituts. Der Mitschke-Vorschlag unterscheidet zwischen einer Einführungsphase und einer Endphase. Für beide Phasen werden die langfristigen Aufkommens- und Beschäftigungs- und Wachstumswirkungen untersucht. Die Aufkommenswirkungen werden zunächst unter der Annahme untersucht, dass es keine Anpassungsreaktionen der Wirtschaftssubjekte gibt. In einem zweiten Schritt werden diese Anpassungsreaktionen untersucht - vor allem die Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigung und Gesamtproduktion. Der Übergang vom bestehenden Steuersystem zur Neuordnung in der Variante der Einführungsphase würde zu Steuerausfällen in Höhe von € 2 Mrd. führen, beim Übergang zur Endphase käme es zu einem Aufkommensverlust von € 13 Mrd. Auf der anderen Seite würde die Steuerreform in der Einführungsphase die Beschäftigung um 370.000 Vollzeitarbeitsplätze und das Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 1,1% steigern. In der Endphase ergibt sich ein Anstieg der Beschäftigung um 540.000 Arbeitsplätze, das BIP würde um 1,7 % ansteigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo, 2005. "Aufkommens-, Beschäftigungs- und Wachstumswirkungen einer Steuerreform nach dem Vorschlag von Mitschke [Revenue, employment and growth effects of the tax reform proposal by Mitschke]," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 5, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fifore:5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/221882/1/fifo-berichte-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fehr, Hans & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 1996. "Numerische Gleichgewichtsmodelle: Grundstruktur, Anwendungen und Erkenntnisgehalt," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 75, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    2. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Viktor Steiner & Katharina Wrohlich, 2004. "Household Taxation, Income Splitting and Labor Supply Incentives – A Microsimulation Study for Germany," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 50(3), pages 541-568.
    4. Defourny, Jacques & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "Structural Path Analysis and Multiplier Decomposition within a Social Accounting Matrix Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 111-136, March.
    5. Böhringer, Christoph & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 2003. "Methoden der angewandten Wirtschaftsforschung: Eine Einführung in die numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-02, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695, Elsevier.
    7. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-90-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Johannes Becker & Clemens Fuest, 2005. "Does Germany collect revenue from taxing the normal return to capital?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 491-511, December.
    9. Robert S. Chirinko & Steven M. Fazzari & Andrew P. Meyer, 2004. "That Elusive Elasticity: A Long-Panel Approach to Estimating the Capital-Labor Substitution Elasticity," CESifo Working Paper Series 1240, CESifo.
    10. Peter Haan, 2004. "Discrete Choice Labor Supply: Conditional Logit vs. Random Coefficient Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 394, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. van Soest, Arthur & Das, Marcel & Gong, Xiaodong, 2002. "A structural labour supply model with flexible preferences," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 345-374, March.
    12. Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    13. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
    14. Tait, Alan A, 1989. "Not So General Equilibrium and Not So Optimal Taxation," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 44(2), pages 169-182.
    15. Richard G. Harris, 1988. "Alternative Solution Methods in Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 53, OECD Publishing.
    16. McDonald, John F & Moffitt, Robert A, 1980. "The Uses of Tobit Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 318-321, May.
    17. Joan Robinson, 1962. "Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-00626-7, December.
    18. Hausman, Jerry A., 1985. "Taxes and labor supply," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 213-263, Elsevier.
    19. Steven J. Keuning & Willem A. de Ruuter, 1988. "Guidelines To The Construction Of A Social Accounting Matrix," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 34(1), pages 71-100, March.
    20. Fuest, Clemens, 2000. "Steuerpolitik und Arbeitslosigkeit," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 11, number urn:isbn:9783161474583, May.
    21. Euwals, Rob & van Soest, Arthur, 1999. "Desired and actual labour supply of unmarried men and women in the Netherlands," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-118, March.
    22. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, September.
    23. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas Fox & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 2003. "Computable general equilibrium analysis: Opening a black box," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-56, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    24. Johannes Becker & Clemens Fuest, 2005. "Wie viel Aufkommen kostet die Einführung eines Konsumsteuersystems? Weniger als 1% des BIP," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 23-25, February.
    25. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
    26. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
    27. A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), 1985. "Handbook of Public Economics," Handbook of Public Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    28. Thomas MaCurdy & David Green & Harry Paarsch, 1990. "Assessing Empirical Approaches for Analyzing Taxes and Labor Supply," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 25(3), pages 415-490.
    29. John Creedy & Alan S. Duncan & Mark Harris & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2796.
    30. repec:mhr:btrfin:urn:isbn:9783161629945 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Siemers, Lars-H. R. & Zöller, Daniel, 2006. "Das Übergangsmodell der Einfachsteuer: Eine Effiziente Unternehmensbesteuerung?," MPRA Paper 757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fuest, Clemens & Heilmann, Sven & Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo & Bergs, Christian, 2006. "Aufkommens-, Beschäftigungs- und Wachstumswirkungen einer Reform des Steuer- und Transfersystems nach dem Bürgergeld-Vorschlag von Joachim Mitschke [Revenue, employment and growth effects of the in," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 8, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    3. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models — Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 301-329, November.
    4. Andreas PEICHL, 2008. "The Benefits of Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," EcoMod2008 23800106, EcoMod.
    5. Jung, Anna & Thöne, Michael & Elschner, Christina & Ernst, Christof & Overesch, Michael & Bergs, Christian & Schaefer, Thilo, 2009. "Evaluierung von Steuervergünstigungen. Band 3: Evaluierungsberichte (zweiter Teilband). Endfassung (Herbst 2009). Forschungsauftrag Projektnummer 15/07 des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110522.
    6. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas, 2006. "Documentation FiFoSiM: integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-10, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens & Schaefer, Thilo, 2005. "Dokumentation FiFoSiM: Integriertes Steuer-Transfer-Mikrosimulations- und CGE-Modell," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-3, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    2. Fuest, Clemens & Heilmann, Sven & Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo & Bergs, Christian, 2006. "Aufkommens-, Beschäftigungs- und Wachstumswirkungen einer Reform des Steuer- und Transfersystems nach dem Bürgergeld-Vorschlag von Joachim Mitschke [Revenue, employment and growth effects of the in," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 8, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    3. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The benefits of linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    4. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas, 2006. "Documentation FiFoSiM: integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-10, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    5. Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    6. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens, 2007. "Is a Flat Tax politically feasible in a grown-up Welfare State?," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 07-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    7. Peichl, Andreas & Schneider, Hilmar & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2010. "Documentation IZA?MOD: The IZA Policy SImulation MODel," IZA Discussion Papers 4865, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2009. "FiFoSiM - an integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model for Germany," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    9. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models — Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 301-329, November.
    10. Bergs Christian & Fuest Clemens & Peichl Andreas & Schaefer Thilo, 2007. "Reformoptionen der Familienbesteuerung: Aufkommens-, Verteilungs- und Arbeitsangebotseffekte," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 58(1), pages 1-27, April.
    11. Nicole Bosch & Miriam Gielen & Egbert Jongen & Mauro Mastrogiacomo (DNB & voorheen CPB), 2013. "A structural analysis of labour supply elasticities in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 235, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2012. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New Results," Working Papers halshs-00805736, HAL.
    13. Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo, 2007. "Is a Flat Tax Feasible in a Grown-up Welfare State?," IZA Discussion Papers 3142, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Nicole Bosch & Miriam Gielen & Egbert Jongen & Mauro Mastrogiacomo (DNB & voorheen CPB), 2013. "A structural analysis of labour supply elasticities in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 235.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2014. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the United States: New Results," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 723-838.
    16. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Nicole M. Bosch & Miriam D. A. C. Gielen & Egbert L. W. Jongen, 2017. "Heterogeneity in Labour Supply Responses: Evidence from a Major Tax Reform," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(5), pages 769-796, October.
    17. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Löffler, Max & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2013. "Validating Structural Labor Supply Models," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79819, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Michiel Evers & Ruud A. De Mooij & Daniel J. Van Vuuren, 2005. "What Explains the Variation in Estimates of Labour Supply Elasticities?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1633, CESifo.
    20. Tim Callan & A. Van Soest & John R. Walsh, 2007. "Tax Structure and Female Labour Market Participation: Evidence from Ireland," Papers WP208, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Steuerreform; Simulationsanalysen; Mitschke-Konzept; Tax reform; tax simulation; Mitschke-proposal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fifore:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fikoede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.