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Money growth and aggregate stock returns

Author

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  • Böing, Tobias
  • Stadtmann, Georg

Abstract

We empirically evaluate the predictive power of money growth measured by M2 for stock returns of the S&P 500 index. We use monthly US data and predict multiperiod returns over 1, 3, and 5 years with long-horizon regressions. In-sample regressions show that money growth is useful for predicting returns. Higher recent money growth has a significantly negative effect on subsequent returns of the S&P 500. An out-of-sample analysis shows that a simple model with money growth as a single predictor performs as goods as the constant expected returns model, while models with several predictor variables perform worse than those simple models.

Suggested Citation

  • Böing, Tobias & Stadtmann, Georg, 2016. "Money growth and aggregate stock returns," Discussion Papers 390, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:390
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Patacca & Sergio Focardi, 2021. "The Quantitative Easing Bursts Bitcoin Price," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 1-65, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money growth; M2; Stock Market; S&P 500; Stock Returns; Out-of-Sample;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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