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The Determinants of Australian Exchange Rate: A Time Series Analysis

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  • Atif, Syed Muhammad
  • Sauytbekova, Moldir
  • Macdonald, James

Abstract

The paper analyzes Australian exchange rate and its determinants by providing an insight into the economic and non-economic factors. By drawing a comparison between quarterly and annual data over the period of 1975 to 2012, it is suggested that Australia’s trade components and macroeconomic indicators such as output and liquidity relative to the US, play a significant role in determination of its exchange rates. However, interest rate and inflation appear insignificant in this relationship. The study also emphasizes on the pertinence of unobservable effects such as political events and external shocks in influencing the exchange rate. Engle-Granger Cointegration test exhibits a long run relationship between exchange rate and its determinants, and corroborates the substantial role of macroeconomic indicators in diminishing the uncertainty in foreign exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Atif, Syed Muhammad & Sauytbekova, Moldir & Macdonald, James, 2012. "The Determinants of Australian Exchange Rate: A Time Series Analysis," EconStor Preprints 65665, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:65665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Gente, Karine & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2012. "Net foreign assets, productivity and real exchange rates in constrained economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 295-316.
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    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Richard Meese, 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 117-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Antonia LÓPEZ VILLAVICENCIO & Josep Lluís RAYMOND BARA, 2008. "Short‐Run And Long‐Run Determinants Of The Real Exchange Rate In Mexico," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(1), pages 52-74, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Backward Elimination;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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