IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/dbrrns/34.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wachstumsperspektiven im Strukturwandel: Neue Branchencluster entstehen

Author

Listed:
  • Ehmer, Philipp
  • Gottschalk, Felix

Abstract

Diese Arbeit thematisiert den Strukturwandel in Deutschland. Bei der klassischen Darstellung anhand der drei Wirtschaftssektoren Landwirtschaft/Industrie/Dienstleistung gehen wichtige Details verloren. Denn Tertiarisierung bedeutet nicht automatisch, dass alle Dienstleistungen auf einem aufstrebenden Ast sind und alle Industriebranchen an Bedeutung verlieren. Mittels einer multivariaten Clusteranalyse teilen wir die Wirtschaft anhand von Strukturmerkmalen von Branchen in aussagekräftige Abschnitte ein. Grundlage für die Neueinteilung sind wichtige Bestimmungsfaktoren der Wachstumstheorie und des Strukturwandels, nämlich die Kapital-, IKT-, Export-, Outsourcing-, Forschungs- und Wissensintensität der Wirtschaftszweige. Die identifizierten Branchencluster überwinden die Grenzen des Drei-Sektoren-Modells und setzen sich sowohl aus Industrie- als auch Dienstleistungsbranchen zusammen. Aufgrund vergleichbarer Strukturmerkmale folgen sie ähnlichen Wachstumstrends und dürften auf exogene Schocks in ähnlicher Weise reagieren. Wir können so Aussagen zum künftigen Strukturwandel und zu den Aussichten der einzelnen Cluster treffen. Nach unseren Ergebnissen ist der Ausblick vor allem für ein forschungs- und wissensintensives Industriecluster und ein Cluster bestehend aus den unternehmensnahen Dienstleistungen, dem Finanzwesen und den Versorgen günstig. Zukunftsbranchen stammen also nicht allein aus dem Dienstleistungssektor, daher sollte die Wachstumsdiskussion nicht einseitig geführt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehmer, Philipp & Gottschalk, Felix, 2010. "Wachstumsperspektiven im Strukturwandel: Neue Branchencluster entstehen," Research Notes 34, Deutsche Bank Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/40635/1/630149275.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2002. "The Rise of Mass Consumption Societies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1035-1070, October.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Marcel P. Timmer & Mary O’Mahony & Bart van Ark, 2007. "EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts: An Overview," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 14, pages 71-85, Spring.
    4. Buera, Francisco J. & Kaboski, Joseph P., 2012. "Scale and the origins of structural change," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 684-712.
    5. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2012. "The Rise of the Service Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2540-2569, October.
    6. Kuznets, Simon, 1973. "Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 247-258, June.
    7. Victor R. Fuchs, 1968. "The Service Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fuch68-1.
    8. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2012. "The Rise of the Service Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2540-2569, October.
    2. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    3. Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    5. Buera, Francisco J. & Kaboski, Joseph P., 2012. "Scale and the origins of structural change," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 684-712.
    6. Fedderke, Johannes W., 2018. "Exploring unbalanced growth: Understanding the sectoral structure of the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-189.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta, 2013. "The two waves of service-sector growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-123, January.
    8. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2009. "Structural Change in an Interdependent World: A Global View of Manufacturing Decline," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 478-486, 04-05.
    9. Andreas Dietrich, 2012. "Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 915-944, December.
    10. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pc:p:2943-2984 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andreas Chai, 2018. "Household consumption patterns and the sectoral composition of growing economies: A review of the interlinkages," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201802, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    12. Fernanda Andrade de Xavier & Aparna P. Lolayekar & Pranab Mukhopadhyay, 2021. "Decentralization and Its Impact on Growth in India," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 16(1), pages 130-151, April.
    13. Jens J. Krüger, 2008. "Productivity And Structural Change: A Review Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 330-363, April.
    14. Bai Yang, 2021. "Human Capital, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Economic Growth in China: A Literature Review," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(8), pages 1-59, July.
    15. Kapur, Basant K., 2012. "Progressive services, asymptotically stagnant services, and manufacturing: Growth and structural change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1322-1339.
    16. Ho, Chi Pui, 2015. "Population growth and structural transformation," MPRA Paper 68014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Liao, Junmin, 2020. "The rise of the service sector in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    18. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Tung Liu & Kui-Wai Li, 2008. "Revisiting Solow’s Decomposition of Economic and Productivity Growth," Working Papers 200805, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2008.
    20. Sodiq Arogundade & Mduduzi Biyase & Hinaunye Eita, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Inclusive Human Development in Sub-Saharan African Countries:Does local Economic Conditions Matter?," Economic Development and Well-being Research Group Working Paper Series edwrg-01-2021, University of Johannesburg, College of Business and Economics, revised 2021.
    21. Blomström, Magnus & Kokko, Ari, 2003. "Human Capital and Inward FDI," CEPR Discussion Papers 3762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strukturwandel; Wirtschaftsstruktur; Tertiarisierung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbresde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.