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L'immigration permet-elle d'atténuer la pénurie de maind'œuvre ?
[Does immigration help alleviate economy-wide labour shortages?]

Author

Listed:
  • Fortin, Pierre

Abstract

La présente étude analyse l'effet de la politique d'immigration expansive du Canada amorcée en 2016 sur la pénurie de main-d'œuvre dans six régions du pays, et tout particulièrement au Québec, qui dispose d'une certaine autonomie de gestion en la matière. J'examine l'évolution de la courbe de Beveridge, c'est-à-dire de la relation classique inverse observée entre le taux de postes vacants et le taux de chômage, avant, pendant et après la pandémie de 2020-2021. Comme l'immigration fait augmenter non seulement l'offre de main-d'œuvre, mais aussi la demande de main-d'œuvre, son effet net sur le taux de postes vacants dans l'ensemble de l'économie est a priori incertain. Pour y voir clair, je présente une analyse statistique des données d'avant et d'après la pandémie dans les six régions du Canada. Elle tend à démontrer que l'hypothèse du « gros bon sens », voulant que plus d'immigration permet d'atténuer une pénurie de main-d'œuvre qui est généralisée dans l'économie, est fausse et constitue un dangereux sophisme de composition.

Suggested Citation

  • Fortin, Pierre, 2024. "L'immigration permet-elle d'atténuer la pénurie de maind'œuvre ? [Does immigration help alleviate economy-wide labour shortages?]," CLEF Working Paper Series 70, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:clefwp:295742
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; pénurie de main-d'œuvre; postes vacants; chômage; courbe de Beveridge; immigration; labour shortages; job vacancies; unemployment; Beveridge curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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