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An analysis of private investors' stock market return forecasts

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  • Theissen, Erik

Abstract

We analyze data on stock index forecasts made by private investors. The implied returns calculated from these forecasts exhibit negative skewness and excess kurtosis. Past returns have a positive impact on the implied returns, consistent with investors expecting positive momentum. Females are less optimistic than males, but their forecasts have higher standard deviation. Consistent with the weekend effect, implied returns from estimates entered on weekends are significantly lower than those entered on weekdays. Implied returns are not consistently related to the weather conditions on the day the forecast was made.

Suggested Citation

  • Theissen, Erik, 2005. "An analysis of private investors' stock market return forecasts," CFR Working Papers 05-16, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0516
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2008. "Is it the weather?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 526-540, April.
    2. Jie Hou & Wendong Shi & Jingwei Sun, 2019. "Stock Returns, weather, and air conditioning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-10, July.
    3. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Jhang, Ling-Jhen & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2016. "Do investor sentiment, weather and catastrophe effects improve hedging performance? Evidence from the Taiwan options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 35-51.
    4. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    5. Denis Boudreaux & Spuma Rao & Phillip Fuller, 2010. "An investigation of the weekend effect during different market orientations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 257-268, July.
    6. Ibrahim Filiz & Jan René Judek & Marco Lorenz & Markus Spiwoks, 2021. "Sticky Stock Market Analysts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-27, December.
    7. Leppin, Julian Sebstian, 2014. "The Relation Between Overreaction in Forecasts and Uncertainty: A Nonlinear Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100284, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral Finance; Weekend effect; Weather effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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