IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cfrwps/0516.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An analysis of private investors' stock market return forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Theissen, Erik

Abstract

We analyze data on stock index forecasts made by private investors. The implied returns calculated from these forecasts exhibit negative skewness and excess kurtosis. Past returns have a positive impact on the implied returns, consistent with investors expecting positive momentum. Females are less optimistic than males, but their forecasts have higher standard deviation. Consistent with the weekend effect, implied returns from estimates entered on weekends are significantly lower than those entered on weekdays. Implied returns are not consistently related to the weather conditions on the day the forecast was made.

Suggested Citation

  • Theissen, Erik, 2005. "An analysis of private investors' stock market return forecasts," CFR Working Papers 05-16, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0516
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/57753/1/699926467.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keim, Donald B & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1984. "A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 819-835, July.
    2. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-124, March.
    3. Chang, Eric C. & Michael Pinegar, J. & Ravichandran, R., 1998. "US day-of-the-week effects and asymmetric responses to macroeconomic news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 513-534, May.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    5. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    6. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    7. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    8. Williams, Arlington W, 1987. "The Formation of Price Forecasts in Experimental Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, February.
    9. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    10. Huberman, Gur, 2001. "Familiarity Breeds Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 659-680.
    11. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    12. Changyun Wang, 2003. "Investor sentiment, market timing, and futures returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 891-898.
    13. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    14. William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2005. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 559-578, November.
    15. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    16. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    17. Rogalski, Richard J, 1984. "New Findings Regarding Day-of-the-Week Returns over Trading and Non-trading Periods: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1603-1614, December.
    18. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    19. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    20. Kaushik Bhattacharya & Nityananda Sarkar & Debabrata Mukhopadhyay, 2003. "Stability of the day of the week effect in return and in volatility at the Indian capital market: a GARCH approach with proper mean specification," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 553-563.
    21. Philip Hans Franses & Richard Paap, 2000. "Modelling day-of-the-week seasonality in the S&P 500 index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 483-488.
    22. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    23. J. Andrew Coutts & Peter Hayes, 1999. "The weekend effect, the Stock Exchange Account and the Financial Times Industrial Ordinary Shares Index: 1987-1994," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 67-71.
    24. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    25. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Zainudin Arsad & J. Andrew Coutts, 1997. "Security price anomalies in the London International Stock Exchange: a 60 year perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 455-464.
    27. Kliger, Doron & Levy, Ori, 2003. "Mood-induced variation in risk preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 573-584, December.
    28. Kramer, Walter & Runde, Ralf, 1997. "Stocks and the Weather: An Exercise in Data Mining or Yet Another Capital Market Anomaly?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 637-641.
    29. Abraham, Abraham & Ikenberry, David L., 1994. "The Individual Investor and the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 263-277, June.
    30. Penman, Stephen H., 1987. "The distribution of earnings news over time and seasonalities in aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-228, June.
    31. De Bondt, Werner P. M., 1993. "Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 355-371, November.
    32. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2008. "Is it the weather?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 526-540, April.
    2. Jie Hou & Wendong Shi & Jingwei Sun, 2019. "Stock Returns, weather, and air conditioning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-10, July.
    3. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Jhang, Ling-Jhen & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2016. "Do investor sentiment, weather and catastrophe effects improve hedging performance? Evidence from the Taiwan options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 35-51.
    4. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    5. Denis Boudreaux & Spuma Rao & Phillip Fuller, 2010. "An investigation of the weekend effect during different market orientations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 257-268, July.
    6. Ibrahim Filiz & Jan René Judek & Marco Lorenz & Markus Spiwoks, 2021. "Sticky Stock Market Analysts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-27, December.
    7. Leppin, Julian Sebstian, 2014. "The Relation Between Overreaction in Forecasts and Uncertainty: A Nonlinear Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100284, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rayenda Brahmana & Chee-Wooi Hooy & Zamri Ahmad, 2012. "Weather, investor irrationality and day-of-the-week anomaly: case of Indonesia," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 129-146, July.
    2. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    4. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "DOW effects in returns and in volatility of stock markets during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 47218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Apr 2013.
    5. Balaban, Ercan & Ozgen, Tolga & Karidis, Socrates, 2018. "Intraday and interday distribution of stock returns and their asymmetric conditional volatility: Firm-level evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 905-915.
    6. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, October.
    7. Jochen M. Schmittmann & Jenny Pirschel & Steffen Meyer & Andreas Hackethal, 2015. "The Impact of Weather on German Retail Investors," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1143-1183.
    8. Denise R. Osborn & Christos S. Savva & Len Gill, 2008. "Periodic Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Stock Markets in Europe and the US," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 307-325, Summer.
    9. H. Kent Baker & Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2008. "The day‐of‐the‐week effect and conditional volatility: Sensitivity of error distributional assumptions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 280-295, December.
    10. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2022. "Tell Me Why I Do Not Like Mondays," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, May.
    11. Satish K. Mittal & Sonal Jain, 2009. "Stock Market Behaviour: Evidences from Indian Market," Vision, , vol. 13(3), pages 19-29, July.
    12. Rayenda Brahmana & Chee Wooi Hooy & Zamri Ahmad, 2014. "The Role of Weather on Investors’ Monday Irrationality: Insights from Malaysia," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(2), June.
    13. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2013. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," SAFE Working Paper Series 4, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Li, Kun & Cursio, Joseph D. & Jiang, Mengfei & Liang, Xi, 2019. "The significance of calendar effects in the electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 487-494.
    15. Georgios Bampinas & Stilianos Fountas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "The day-of-the-week effect is weak: Evidence from the European Real Estate Sector," Discussion Paper Series 2015_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised May 2015.
    16. Wessel Marquering & Johan Nisser & Toni Valla, 2006. "Disappearing anomalies: a dynamic analysis of the persistence of anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 291-302.
    17. Kostopoulos, Dimitrios & Meyer, Steffen & Uhr, Charline, 2020. "Ambiguity and investor behavior," SAFE Working Paper Series 297, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    18. Birru, Justin, 2018. "Day of the week and the cross-section of returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 182-214.
    19. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    20. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2005. "Day-of-the-week effects in the pre-holiday returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 107-119.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral Finance; Weekend effect; Weather effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfkoede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.