IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cefswp/200402.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What drives cash flow based European private equity returns? Fund inflows, skilled GPs and/or risk?

Author

Listed:
  • Kaserer, Christoph
  • Diller, Christian

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of returns generated by European private equity funds. It starts from the presumption that this asset class is characterized by illiquidity, stickiness and segmentation. As a consequence, Gompers and Lerner (2000) have shown that venture deal valuations are driven by overall fund inflows into the industry giving way to the so called 'money chasing deals' phenomenon. It is the aim of this paper to document that this phenomenon also explains a significant part of variation in private equity funds' returns. This is especially true for venture funds, as they are more affected by illiquidity and segmentation than buy-out funds. Actually, the paper presents a WLS-regression model that is able to explain up to 47% of variation in funds' returns. Apart from the importance of fund flows we can also show that market sentiment, the GPs' skills as well as the idiosyncratic risk of a fund have a significant impact on its returns. Moreover, they seem to be unrelated to stock market returns and negatively correlated with the development of the economy as a whole. According to a bootstrapping inference the results seem to be quite stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaserer, Christoph & Diller, Christian, 2004. "What drives cash flow based European private equity returns? Fund inflows, skilled GPs and/or risk?," CEFS Working Paper Series 2004-02, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cefswp:200402
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/48536/1/664482368.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    2. Alexander Ljungqvist & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "The cash flow, return and risk characteristics of private equity," NBER Working Papers 9454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 2000. "Money chasing deals? The impact of fund inflows on private equity valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 281-325, February.
    4. Steven N. Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2005. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1791-1823, August.
    5. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
    6. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    7. Goetzmann, William N. & Ingersoll, Jonathan & Ivković, Zoran, 2000. "Monthly Measurement of Daily Timers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 257-290, September.
    8. Madura, Jeff & Bers, Martina K., 2002. "The performance persistence of foreign closed-end funds," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 263-285.
    9. Crystal Yan Lin & Kenneth Yung, 2004. "Real Estate Mutual Funds: Performance and Persistence," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(1), pages 69-94.
    10. Michael Ewens & Charles M. Jones & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2013. "The Price of Diversifiable Risk in Venture Capital and Private Equity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1854-1889.
    11. Steven Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2003. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence and Capital," NBER Working Papers 9807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Inderst, Roman & Muller, Holger M., 2004. "The effect of capital market characteristics on the value of start-up firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 319-356, May.
    13. Deaves, Richard, 2004. "Data-conditioning biases, performance, persistence and flows: The case of Canadian equity funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 673-694, March.
    14. Cornelli, Francesca & Ljungqvist, Alexander & Goldreich, David, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and Pre-Issue Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4448, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Hendricks, Darryll & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1993. "Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974-1988," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 93-130, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bongaerts, Dion & Charlier, Erwin, 2009. "Private equity and regulatory capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1211-1220, July.
    2. Lossen, Ulrich, 2006. "The Performance of Private Equity Funds: Does Diversification Matter?," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 192, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-591 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Rainer Lauterbach & Isabell Welpe & Jan Fertig, 2007. "Performance differentiation: cutting losses and maximizing profits of private equity and venture capital investments," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(1), pages 45-67, March.
    5. Valkama, Petri & Maula, Markku & Nikoskelainen, Erkki & Wright, Mike, 2013. "Drivers of holding period firm-level returns in private equity-backed buyouts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2378-2391.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Diller & Christoph Kaserer, 2009. "What Drives Private Equity Returns?– Fund Inflows, Skilled GPs, and/or Risk?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 643-675, June.
    2. Boyan Jovanovic & Balàzs Szentes, 2007. "On the Return to Venture Capital," NBER Working Papers 12874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alexander Peter Groh & Oliver Gottschalg, 2008. "The Opportunity Cost of Capital of US Buyouts," NBER Working Papers 14148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alexander Ljungqvist & Matthew Richardson & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2020. "The investment behavior of buyout funds: Theory and evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 3-32, March.
    5. Lossen, Ulrich, 2006. "The Performance of Private Equity Funds: Does Diversification Matter?," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 192, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    6. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 573-648, Elsevier.
    7. Andrew Metrick & Ayako Yasuda, 2011. "Venture Capital and Other Private Equity: a Survey," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 619-654, September.
    8. Groh, Alexander P. & Gottschalg, Oliver, 2009. "The opportunity cost of capital of US buyouts," IESE Research Papers D/780, IESE Business School.
    9. Gompers, Paul & Kovner, Anna & Lerner, Josh & Scharfstein, David, 2008. "Venture capital investment cycles: The impact of public markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-23, January.
    10. Yrjö Koskinen & Michael J. Rebello & Jun Wang, 2014. "Private Information and Bargaining Power in Venture Capital Financing," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 743-775, December.
    11. Ludovic Phalippou & Oliver Gottschalg, 2009. "The Performance of Private Equity Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 1747-1776, April.
    12. Ulf Axelson & Per Strömberg & Michael S. Weisbach, 2009. "Why Are Buyouts Levered? The Financial Structure of Private Equity Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1549-1582, August.
    13. Robinson, David T. & Sensoy, Berk A., 2016. "Cyclicality, performance measurement, and cash flow liquidity in private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 521-543.
    14. Ron Bird & Harry Liem & Susan Thorp, 2011. "Private Equity: Strategies for Improving Performance," Working Paper Series 12, The Paul Woolley Centre for Capital Market Dysfunctionality, University of Technology, Sydney.
    15. Caselli, Stefano & Garcia-Appendini, Emilia & Ippolito, Filippo, 2013. "Contracts and returns in private equity investments," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 201-217.
    16. Gaddy, Benjamin E. & Sivaram, Varun & Jones, Timothy B. & Wayman, Libby, 2017. "Venture Capital and Cleantech: The wrong model for energy innovation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 385-395.
    17. Robinson, David T. & Sensoy, Berk A., 2010. "Private Equity in the 21st Century: Cash Flows, Performance, and Contract Terms from 1984-2010," Working Paper Series 2010-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    18. Valkama, Petri & Maula, Markku & Nikoskelainen, Erkki & Wright, Mike, 2013. "Drivers of holding period firm-level returns in private equity-backed buyouts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2378-2391.
    19. Buchner, Axel, 2016. "How much can lack of marketability affect private equity fund values?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 35-45.
    20. Axel Buchner, 2016. "How much can lack of marketability affect private equity fund values?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 35-45, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    private equity funds; venture capital; financing; WLS; bootstrapping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cefswp:200402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwtumde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.