IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cbscwp/295.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Importing Threat: The Electoral Logic of Economic Relief

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Minju
  • Gulotty, Robert

Abstract

Commercial policies are often only efficient insofar as those harmed can be compensated. In practice, compensatory measures fall far short of distributive harm. We rationalize the paucity of compensation as a strategic effort on the part of elected officials to withhold information about effects of their policy initiatives. We develop a formal model in which citizens must infer the effects of a policy initiative as well as the politician's commitments from the choice to offer compensation. We find that committed policymakers under-provide compensation to avoid electoral backlash. Using microdata from the US Trade Adjustment Assistance program, we replicate a research design that uses exogenous allocation of petitions for assistance across bureaucrats for causal identification. We find that a ten percent increase in the TAA certification rate decreases support for Democratic candidates by 1:75% in areas hard hit by import-competition. This electoral effect incentivizes pro-distributive politicians to under-provide economic assistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Minju & Gulotty, Robert, 2019. "Importing Threat: The Electoral Logic of Economic Relief," Working Papers 295, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:295
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/262697/1/wp295.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruggie, John Gerard, 1982. "International regimes, transactions, and change: embedded liberalism in the postwar economic order," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 379-415, April.
    2. Kim, Sung Eun, 2018. "Media Bias against Foreign Firms as a Veiled Trade Barrier: Evidence from Chinese Newspapers," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 954-970, November.
    3. Timothy Besley & Andrea Prat, 2006. "Handcuffs for the Grabbing Hand? Media Capture and Government Accountability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 720-736, June.
    4. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    5. Hays, Jude C. & Ehrlich, Sean D. & Peinhardt, Clint, 2005. "Government Spending and Public Support for Trade in the OECD: An Empirical Test of the Embedded Liberalism Thesis," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(2), pages 473-494, April.
    6. Christian Dippel & Robert Gold & Stephan Heblich, 2015. "Globalization and Its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior," NBER Working Papers 21812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jensen, J. Bradford & Quinn, Dennis P. & Weymouth, Stephen, 2017. "Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on US Presidential Voting," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 423-457, July.
    8. Clément Malgouyres, 2017. "Trade Shocks and Far-Right Voting: Evidence from French Presidential Elections," RSCAS Working Papers 2017/21, European University Institute.
    9. Ashworth, Scott & Bueno De Mesquita, Ethan, 2014. "Is Voter Competence Good for Voters?: Information, Rationality, and Democratic Performance," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 565-587, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nils D. Steiner & Philipp Harms, 2020. "Local Trade Shocks and the Nationalist Backlash in Political Attitudes: Panel Data Evidence from Great Britain," Working Papers 2014, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    2. Harms, Philipp & Steiner, Nils, 2019. "The China Shock and the Nationalist Backlash against Globalization: Attitudinal Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203506, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Rickard, Stephanie, 2022. "Economic geography, politics, and the world trade regime," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2017. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1749, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    6. Piero Stanig & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "A Popular Backlash Against Globalization?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24226, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2016. "Global Competition and Brexit," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1644, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    8. Colantone, Italo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Stanig, Piero, 2021. "The backlash of globalization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113860, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Cevat G. Aksoy & Sergei Guriev & Daniel S. Treisman, 2018. "Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide," NBER Working Papers 25062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jiwon Choi & Ilyana Kuziemko & Ebonya Washington & Gavin Wright, 2024. "Local Economic and Political Effects of Trade Deals: Evidence from NAFTA," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(6), pages 1540-1575, June.
    11. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    12. Erling Barth & Henning Finseraas & Anders Kjelsrud & Karl O. Moene, 2021. "Does the Rise of China Lead to the Fall of European Welfare States?," Working Papers 202007, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo Business School.
    13. Matthieu Crozet & Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2018. "Looking for the Bright Side of the China Syndrome: Rising Export Opportunities and Life Satisfaction in China," Working Papers 2018-14, CEPII research center.
    14. Ballard-Rosa, Cameron & Malik, Mashail & Rickard, Stephanie & Scheve, Kenneth, 2021. "The economic origins of authoritarian values: evidence from local trade shocks in the United Kingdom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108664, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Gold, Robert & Dippel, Christian & Heblich, Stephan & Pinto, Rodrigo, 2017. "Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking the Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168152, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Frédéric Docquier & Lucas Guichard & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2022. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 10068, CESifo.
    17. Edo, Anthony & Giesing, Yvonne & Öztunc, Jonathan & Poutvaara, Panu, 2019. "Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 99-143.
    18. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2020. "Globalization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from Italy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 68-103, March.
    19. Bowen, T. Renee & Broz, James, 2020. "Designing an International Economic Order: A Research Agenda," CEPR Discussion Papers 15407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Aggeborn, Linuz & Persson, Lovisa, 2017. "Public Finance and Right-Wing Populism," Working Paper Series 1182, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:295. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gsuchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.