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Transaction taxes, traders' behavior and exchange rate risks

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  • Demary, Markus

Abstract

We propose a new model of chartist-fundamentalist-interaction in which both groups of traders are allowed to select endogenously between different forecasting models and different investment horizons. Stochastic interest rates in both countries and different behavioral assumptions for trend-extrapolating and fundamental based forecasts determine the agents' market orders which drive the exchange rate. A numerical analysis of the model shows that it is able to replicate stylized facts of observed financial return time series like excess kurtosis and volatility clustering. Within this framework we study the effects of transaction taxes on exchange rate volatility and traders' behavior measured by their population fractions. Simula- tions yield the result that on the macroscopic level these taxes reduce the variance of exchange rate returns, but also increase their kurtosis. Moreover, on the microscopic level the tax harms short-term speculation in favor of long-term investment, while it also harms trading rules based on economic fundamentals in favor to trend extrapolating trading rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Demary, Markus, 2006. "Transaction taxes, traders' behavior and exchange rate risks," Economics Working Papers 2006-14, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Filip Stanek & Jiri Kukacka, 2018. "The Impact of the Tobin Tax in a Heterogeneous Agent Model of the Foreign Exchange Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 865-892, April.
    2. Lendvai, Julia & Raciborski, Rafal & Vogel, Lukas, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of an equity transaction tax in a general-equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 466-482.
    3. Xiaoping Li & Chunyang Zhou, 2024. "Tobin Tax, Carry Trade, and the Exchange Rate Dynamics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 1627-1647, April.

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    Keywords

    Chartist-Fundamentalist-Interaction; Exchange Rates; Financial Market Volatility; Transaction Taxes;
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