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If there is a stable relationship between climate change and civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa? A replication study of Miguel et al. (The Journal of Political Economy, 2004)

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  • Khalifa, Sherin
  • Henning, Christian H. C. A.

Abstract

We replicated the findings of Miguel and his co-authors, who find a significant negative relationship between economic shocks and the likelihood of civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 1981- 1999, using rainfall growth as an instrumental variable for the economic growth rate. The replication of this study is successfully performed. Furthermore, we apply a robustness test to the results using new cross-country panel data, with different measurements, and econometric specifications. The results appear to be sensitive to changes in data sources that use different methods of making the data available, although we find partly the same patterns between weather and economic growth rate, and between the income growth and the likelihood of civil conflict, like Miguel et al. (2004) for SSA period 1981-1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Khalifa, Sherin & Henning, Christian H. C. A., 2020. "If there is a stable relationship between climate change and civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa? A replication study of Miguel et al. (The Journal of Political Economy, 2004)," Working Papers of Agricultural Policy WP2020-02, University of Kiel, Department of Agricultural Economics, Chair of Agricultural Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202002
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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    3. Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 215-227, October.
    4. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    5. Antonio Ciccone, 2013. "Estimating the Effect of Transitory Economic Shocks on Civil Conflict," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 4(2).
    6. Simeon Djankov & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2010. "Poverty and Civil War: Revisiting the Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1035-1041, November.
    7. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
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    Keywords

    Rainfall; economic growth rate; conflict; Sub-Saharan Africa;
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