IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/332014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area: A wavelet analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mandler, Martin
  • Scharnagl, Michael

Abstract

Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of strong comovements between money growth and inflation at low frequencies with money growth as the leading variable. However, our analysis of time variation at medium-to-long-run frequencies indicates a weakening of the relationship after the mid 1990s which also reflects in a deterioration of the leading indicator property and a decline in the cross wavelet gain. In contrast, most of the literature, by failing to account for the effects of time variation, estimated stable long-run relationships between money growth and inflation well into the 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2014. "Money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area: A wavelet analysis," Discussion Papers 33/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:332014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/104625/1/805598707.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carstensen, Kai, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-128, February.
    4. Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2013. "Money growth and inflation: A regime switching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 118-145.
    5. Ramsey, J.B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Working Papers 02-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    6. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- And Bivariate Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 344-375, April.
    7. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, June.
    8. Hofmann, Boris, 2006. "Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Pedro Teles & Harald Uhlig & João Valle e Azevedo, 2016. "Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 442-464, March.
    10. Dewald, William G. & Haug, Alfred A., 2004. "Longer-term effects of monetary growth on real and nominal variables, major industrial countries, 1880-2001," Working Paper Series 382, European Central Bank.
    11. Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "U.S. shale oil production and WTI prices behaviour," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 12-19.
    2. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Brinca, Pedro & Gudjonsson, Haukur & Soares, Joana, 2015. "Optimal currency area and business cycle synchronization across U.S. states," MPRA Paper 62125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Krüger, Jens J., 2024. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 149438, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    4. Mensi, Walid & Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Maitra, Debasish & Hamed Al-Yahyaee, Khamis & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Does bitcoin co-move and share risk with Sukuk and world and regional Islamic stock markets? Evidence using a time-frequency approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2019. "The time-frequency co-movement of Asian effective exchange rates: A wavelet approach with daily data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 131-148.
    6. Janice Boucher Breuer & John Mcdermott & Warren E. Weber, 2018. "Time Aggregation and the Relationship between Inflation and Money Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 351-375, March.
    7. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2024. "Tail connectedness of DeFi and CeFi with accessible banking pillars: Unveiling novel insights through wavelet and quantile cross-spectral coherence analyses," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    8. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "On the higher-order moment interdependence of stock and commodity markets: A wavelet coherence analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-151.
    9. Angeliki Skoura, 2019. "Detection of Lead-Lag Relationships Using Both Time Domain and Time-Frequency Domain; An Application to Wealth-To-Income Ratio," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-27, April.
    10. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bekiros Stelios & Muzaffar Ahmed T. & Uddin Gazi S. & Vidal-García Javier, 2017. "Money supply and inflation dynamics in the Asia-Pacific economies: a time-frequency approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-12, June.
    13. Erdost Torun & Afife Duygu Ayhan Akdeniz & Erhan Demireli & Simon Grima, 2022. "Long-Term US Economic Growth and the Carbon Dioxide Emissions Nexus: A Wavelet-Based Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-16, August.
    14. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Fratianni, Michele, 2019. "Money growth and inflation: International historical evidence on high inflation episodes for developed countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland.
    15. Brian Opiyo Yalla & Ferdinand Okoth Othieno, 2023. "Modelling delayed correlation between interest rates and equity market returns," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-24, February.
    16. Pejman Bahramian & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2021. "Does Capacity Utilization Predict Inflation? A Wavelet Based Evidence from United States," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 1103-1125, December.
    17. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
    18. Jung, Alexander, 2024. "The quantity theory of money, 1870-2020," Working Paper Series 2940, European Central Bank.
    19. Andreani, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2024. "Mortgages, house prices, and business cycle dynamic: A medium-run exploration using the continuous wavelet transform," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. João Martins, 2022. "Bond Yields Movement Similarities and Synchronization in the G7: A Time–Frequency Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 189-214, July.
    21. Gandjon Fankem, Gislain Stéphane & Fouda Mbesa, Lucien Cédric, 2023. "Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    money growth; inflation; wavelet analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:332014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.