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Money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area: A wavelet analysis

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  • Mandler, Martin
  • Scharnagl, Michael

Abstract

Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of strong comovements between money growth and inflation at low frequencies with money growth as the leading variable. However, our analysis of time variation at medium-to-long-run frequencies indicates a weakening of the relationship after the mid 1990s which also reflects in a deterioration of the leading indicator property and a decline in the cross wavelet gain. In contrast, most of the literature, by failing to account for the effects of time variation, estimated stable long-run relationships between money growth and inflation well into the 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2014. "Money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area: A wavelet analysis," Discussion Papers 33/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:332014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares & Rita Sousa, 2017. "California´s Carbon Market and Energy Prices: A Wavelet Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 13/2017, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Fratianni, Michele & Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico, 2022. "The medium-run Phillips curve: A time–frequency investigation for the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Alexander Jung, 2018. "Have money and credit data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(1), pages 39-67, February.
    5. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2020. "Okun’s Law across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Yaqi Wu & Chen Zhang & Po Yun & Dandan Zhu & Wei Cao & Zulfiqar Ali Wagan, 2021. "Time–frequency analysis of the interaction mechanism between European carbon and crude oil markets," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(7), pages 1331-1357, November.
    7. Flor, Michael A. & Klarl, Torben, 2017. "On the cyclicity of regional house prices: New evidence for U.S. metropolitan statistical areas," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 134-156.
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
    11. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Fratianni, Michele, 2019. "Money growth and inflation: International historical evidence on high inflation episodes for developed countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland.
    12. Antony, Jürgen & Klarl, Torben, 2020. "Estimating the income inequality-health relationship for the United States between 1941 and 2015: Will the relevant frequencies please stand up?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    13. Amine Ben Amar & Jean‐Étienne Carlotti, 2021. "Who drives the dance? Further insights from a time‐frequency wavelet analysis of the interrelationship between stock markets and uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1623-1636, January.
    14. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    15. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2018. "Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 122-137.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ramin Khochiani & Younes Nademi, 2020. "Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in the United States, China, and India: A wavelet coherence approach," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(5), pages 886-902, August.
    18. Scharnagl, Michael & Mandler, Martin, 2015. "The relationship of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates with real GDP and inflation: a wavelet analysis for the US," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112879, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Funashima Yoshito, 2021. "Time–Frequency Regression," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 21-32, January.
    20. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    21. Bašta, Milan & Molnár, Peter, 2018. "Oil market volatility and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 204-214.
    22. Patrick M. Crowley & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2021. "The Evolution of US and UK Real GDP Components in the Time-Frequency Domain: A Continuous Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 233-261, December.
    23. Marcin Koltuniak, 2016. "Examination of the directions of spillover effects between the real estate and stock prices in Poland using wavelet analysis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 251-266.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    money growth; inflation; wavelet analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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