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The international integration of foreign exchange markets in the central and east European accession countries: speculative efficiency, transaction costs and exchange rate premiums

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  • Herrmann, Sabine
  • Jochem, Axel

Abstract

A test of speculative efficiency on the foreign exchange markets of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the Slovak republic was unable to identify a cointegration relationship between forward and spot rates against the euro for the period between 1999 and mid-2002. Econometric studies confirm the existence of a time-variable exchange rate premium in all of the above countries. However, information and transaction costs also appear to be responsible for the observed deviations from speculative efficiency. The segmentation of the foreign exchange markets is likely to hamper the coordination of national monetary and foreign exchange policies within ERM II. In addition, this segmentation increases uncertainty in setting the central rate against the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2003. "The international integration of foreign exchange markets in the central and east European accession countries: speculative efficiency, transaction costs and exchange rate premiums," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4205
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    Cited by:

    1. Jochem, Axel & Herrmann, Sabine, 2003. "The international integration of money markets in the central and east European accession countries: deviations from covered interest parity, capital controls and inefficiencies in the financial secto," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Köhler, Matthias, 2005. "International Capital Mobility and Current Account Targeting in Central and Eastern European Countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-51, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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