IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp2016_003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Leverage dynamics and the burden of debt

Author

Listed:
  • Juselius, Mikael
  • Drehmann, Mathias

Abstract

In addition to leverage, the debt service burden of households and firms is an important link between financial and real developments at the aggregate level. Using US data from 1985 to 2013, we find that the debt service burden has sizeable negative effects on expenditure. Its interplay with leverage also explains several data puzzles, such as the lack of above-trend output growth during credit booms and the depth and length of ensuing recessions, without appealing to large shocks or non-linearities. Using data up to 2005, our model predicts paths for credit and expenditure that closely match actual developments before and during the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Juselius, Mikael & Drehmann, Mathias, 2016. "Leverage dynamics and the burden of debt," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2016, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2016_003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212341/1/bof-rdp2016-003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    2. Urban J. Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Financial innovations and macroeconomic volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    6. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    7. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, July.
    8. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    11. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    12. Leonardo Gambacorta & Carlotta Rossi, 2010. "Modelling bank lending in the euro area: a nonlinear approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1099-1112.
    13. Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 470-487, September.
    14. Anton Korinek & Alp Simsek, 2016. "Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 699-738, March.
    15. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    16. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    17. Ursel Baumann, 2014. "Has US Household Deleveraging Ended? A Model-Based Estimate of Equilibrium Debt," Working Papers w201404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Karen E. Dynan & Kathleen W. Johnson & Karen M. Pence, 2003. "Recent changes to a measure of U.S. household debt service," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 89(Oct), pages 417-426, October.
    19. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
    20. Janine Aron & John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Keiko Murata & Anthony Murphy, 2012. "Credit, Housing Collateral, And Consumption: Evidence From Japan, The U.K., And The U.S," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 397-423, September.
    21. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius, 2012. "Do debt service costs affect macroeconomic and financial stability?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    22. Gan, Jie, 2007. "Collateral, debt capacity, and corporate investment: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 709-734, September.
    23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Virginie Coudert & Cyril Pouvelle, 2010. "Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: The case of Central and Eastern European Countries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 87-120, June.
    25. Quercia, Roberto G. & McCarthy, George W. & Wachter, Susan M., 2003. "The impacts of affordable lending efforts on homeownership rates," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-59, March.
    26. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    27. Joshua D. Rauh, 2006. "Investment and Financing Constraints: Evidence from the Funding of Corporate Pension Plans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 33-71, February.
    28. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Abiad, Abdul & Li, Bin Grace, 2011. "Creditless Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2016. "A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1645-1704, September.
    30. Mathias Drehmann & Anamaria Illes & Mikael Juselius & Marjorie Santos, 2015. "How much income is used for debt payments? A new database for debt service ratios," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    31. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226081946 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    33. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    34. William R. Emmons, 2006. "As household asset values rise, should we still worry about the saving rate?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 10-11.
    35. Kathleen W. Johnson & Geng Li, 2010. "The Debt-Payment-to-Income Ratio as an Indicator of Borrowing Constraints: Evidence from Two Household Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1373-1390, October.
    36. Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of outliers," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 249-271, June.
    37. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
    38. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Assessing the risk of banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021. "Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.
    2. Narayan, Seema & Bui, Minh Ngoc Thi & Ren, Yishuai & Ma, Chaoqun, 2021. "Macroeconomic determinants of US corporate leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2021. "How can green differentiated capital requirements affect climate risks? A dynamic macrofinancial analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Cengiz Tunc & Mustafa Kilinc, 2023. "Household Debt and Economic Growth: Debt Service Matters," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 71-92, February.
    5. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Frederic Boissay & Claudio Borio & Cristina Leonte & Ilhyock Shim, 2023. "Prudential policy and financial dominance: exploring the link," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2020. "Leverage Dynamics and the Burden of Debt," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 347-364, April.
    3. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2015. "Leverage dynamics and the real burden of debt," BIS Working Papers 501, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    5. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: The painful legacy of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2017, Bank of Finland.
    6. Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Debt Service: The Painful Legacy of Credit Booms," 2017 Meeting Papers 1258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Going with the flows: New borrowing, debt service and the transmission of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2018, Bank of Finland.
    10. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms," BIS Working Papers 645, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2023. "Long-term debt propagation and real reversals," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2023, Bank of Finland.
    13. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    16. Braun, Matías & Marcet, Francisco & Raddatz, Claudio, 2024. "The good, the bad, and the not-so-ugly of credit booms?: capital allocation and financial constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    17. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.
    18. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/574jpbbn0f8f5r56hqi6mjgm9d is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/574jpbbn0f8f5r56hqi6mjgm9d is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Jeremy C. Stein, 2021. "Can Policy Tame the Credit Cycle?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 5-22, March.
    22. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    23. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    24. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Sarah Quincy, "undated". "Aggregate debt servicing and the limit on private credit," BIS Working Papers 1235, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2016_003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.