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Is Europe growing together or growing apart?

Author

Listed:
  • Crowley, Patrick M.
  • Garcia, Enrique
  • Chee-Heong, Quah

Abstract

While it is painfully clear that the 'ever closer' monetary and financial union in the EU has run into serious trouble there has been very little study of the degree to which the countries have become similar or different in their economic growth dynamics. This paper therefore goes beyond the traditional convergence literature to look at their dynamic convergence and explore the path of their changing similarity in the frequency domain. The results show that while a core group of countries may be developing together, there appears to be at least seven identifiable groups of countries with different growth dynamics. Greece appears to be in a class on its own. Business cycles are important but longer-term trends and higher frequency fluctuations all have a role to play in facilitating adjustment. These results provide awkward implications for policy, particularly for those who thought that simply having a union would draw countries closer together (endogenous OCA criteria).

Suggested Citation

  • Crowley, Patrick M. & Garcia, Enrique & Chee-Heong, Quah, 2013. "Is Europe growing together or growing apart?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 33/2013, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2013_033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Ellison, Martin & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2014. "Unconventional government debt purchases as a supplement to conventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 199-217.
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    9. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Newby, Elisa, 2013. "Midas, transmuting all, into paper: The Bank of England and the Banque de France during the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2013, Bank of Finland.
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    Cited by:

    1. Campos, Nauro F. & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2021. "The dynamics of core and periphery in the European monetary union: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Abban, Stanley, 2020. "Currency Union as a Panacea for ills in Africa: A New Institutional Framework and Theoretical Consideration," MPRA Paper 105459, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; growth cycles; frequency domain; wavelet analysis; cluster analysis; euro area; European Union; optimal currency area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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