IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp2004_018.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland

Author

Listed:
  • Virolainen, Kimmo

Abstract

In the discussion paper, we employ data on industry-specific corporate sector bankruptcies over the time period from 1986 to 2003 and estimate a macroeconomic credit risk model for the Finnish corporate sector.The sample period includes a severe recession with significantly higher-than-average default rates in the early 1990s.The results suggest a significant relationship between corporate sector default rates and key macroeconomic factors including GDP, interest rates and corporate indebtedness.The estimated model is employed to analyse corporate credit risks conditional on current macroeconomic conditions.Furthermore, the paper presents some examples of applying the model to macro stress testing, ie analysing the effects of various adverse macroeconomic events on the banks credit risks stemming from the corporate sector.The results of the stress tests suggest that Finnish corporate sector credit risks are fairly limited in the current macroeconomic environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Virolainen, Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2004_018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/211986/1/bof-rdp2004-018.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1994_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    3. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    4. Nyberg, Peter & Vihriälä, Vesa, 1994. "The Finnish banking crisis and its handling (an update of developments through 1993)," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/1994, Bank of Finland.
    5. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2002:i:3:b:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. M. Tudela & G. Young, 2005. "A Merton-Model Approach To Assessing The Default Risk Of Uk Public Companies," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 737-761.
    8. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Bank for International Settlements, 2000. "Stress Testing by Large Financial Institutions: Current Practice and Aggregation Issues," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 14, december.
    10. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    11. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
    12. Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
    13. Harvir Kalirai & Martin Scheicher, 2002. "Macroeconomic Stress Testing: Preliminary Evidence for Austria," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 58-74.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2001_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:94_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anilda Bozdo & Ermela Kripa, 2015. "The Impact of Macro-Economic Factors on Non-Performing Loans in Albania," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 4, December.
    2. Kyriakos Georgiou & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probability of Default modelling with L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and applications in credit risk under the IFRS 9," Papers 2309.12384, arXiv.org.
    3. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2023. "Distribution of credit-risk concentration in particular sectors of the economy, and economic capital before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 129-158, February.
    4. Jokivuolle, Esa & Virolainen, Kimmo & Vähämaa, Oskari, 2008. "Macro-model-based stress testing of Basel II requirements," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2008, Bank of Finland.
    5. Csaba BÁLINT, 2022. "Sectorial Price Shock Propagation via Input-Output Linkages," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 21-40, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Virolainen, Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
    4. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
    5. Bertrand Rime, 2007. "Could Regional and Cantonal Banks Reduce Credit Risk through National Diversification?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(I), pages 49-65, March.
    6. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.
    7. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    8. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Hany, Jie, 2010. "Financial Distress in Chinese Industry: Microeconomic, Macroeconomic and Institutional Infuences," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-53, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    9. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Bardos, M. & Jardet, C. & Kendaoui, L. & Moquet , J., 2009. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model: Application to the French manufacturing sector," Working papers 238, Banque de France.
    10. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2006. "Discrete versus continuous state switching models for portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 23-35, January.
    11. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    12. Yang, Xiaolou & Hu, Yingyao, 2024. "Default risk and stock returns: From a perspective of measurement errors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1545-1561.
    13. Paulo V. Carvalho & José D. Curto & Rodrigo Primor, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2054-2072, April.
    14. Michal Řičař, 2014. "Macroeconomic Modelling of a Firm's Default," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 27-40.
    15. Robert Kelly & Eoin Brien & Rebecca Stuart, 2015. "A long-run survival analysis of corporate liquidations in Ireland," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 671-683, March.
    16. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
    17. G'eraldine Bouveret & Jean-Franc{c}ois Chassagneux & Smail Ibbou & Antoine Jacquier & Lionel Sopgoui, 2023. "Propagation of a carbon price in a credit portfolio through macroeconomic factors," Papers 2307.12695, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    18. Tomáš Vaněk & David Hampel, 2017. "The Probability of Default Under IFRS 9: Multi-period Estimation and Macroeconomic Forecast," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 759-776.
    19. Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait & Cifter, Elif, 2009. "Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1382-1388, November.
    20. Ferrer, Alex & Casals, José & Sotoca, Sonia, 2015. "Sample dependency during unconditional credit capital estimation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 175-186.
    21. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Han, Jie, 2014. "Financial distress of Chinese firms: Microeconomic, macroeconomic and institutional influences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 244-262.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking; credit risk; stress tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2004_018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.