IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp1995_006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit crunch caused investment slump? An empirical analysis using Finnish data

Author

Listed:
  • Saarenheimo, Tuomas

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to empirically analyze and quantify the effect of changes in the supply of bank credit on private investment.Particular interest is placed on the role of the credit crunch in explaining the collapse in private investment in the early l990s. Using a vector autoregressive econometric model, it is shown that the credit supply plays a statistically significant and economically important role in determining investment.The effect of credit on investment comes through with a lag of about a year and persists for several years.Money supply is a powerful investment predictor in a bivariate relation, but loses its significance completely once credit is included in the model.Hence, in the light of history, it appears that the money supply has had little effect on investment except as relayed through credit and, to a lesser extent, through the interest rate.On the other hand, since strong contemporaneous comovements were found between money and credit, the contemporaneous effect of money on credit may be considerable. In general, the results were found to be consistent with the credit view of the monetary transmission mechanism: monetary policy affects both sides of bank's balance sheets--money supply and credit supply--and credit seems to be the more important predictor for investment. It is estimated that positive shocks to the credit supply during 1986-1988 raised the peak for private investment in 1990 by about FIM 25 billion annually.On the other hand, the subsequent negative shocks deepened the collapse of investment by approximately FIM 20 billion annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Saarenheimo, Tuomas, 1995. "Credit crunch caused investment slump? An empirical analysis using Finnish data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1995, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1995_006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/211719/1/bof-rdp1995-006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference? comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 305-318, January.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    4. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
    5. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. King, Stephen R, 1986. "Monetary Transmission: Through Bank Loans or Bank Liabilities?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 290-303, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2002. "Bank credit in the transmission of monetary policy: A critical review of the issues and evidence," MPRA Paper 19816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Honda, Yuzo, 2004. "Bank capital regulations and the transmission mechanism," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 675-688, September.
    3. Riccardo Fiorentini & Roberto Tamborini, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Credit and Aggregate Supply: The Evidence from Italy," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 31(3), pages 451-491, November.
    4. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1995. "Three Financing Constraint Hypotheses and Inventory Investment: New Tests With Time and Sectoral Heterogeneity," Macroeconomics 9510001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 1995.
    5. Donald W. Hayes & Cara S. Lown, 1990. "Another look at the credit-output link," Working Papers 9001, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Evidence from the Flow of Funds," NBER Working Papers 4699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Vojtech, Cindy M. & Kay, Benjamin S. & Driscoll, John C., 2020. "The real consequences of bank mortgage lending standards," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    8. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2002. "Further VAR evidence for the effectiveness of a credit channel in Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,66, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    9. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hoag, John H. & Wheeler, Mark, 1996. "Oil price shocks and employment: the case of Ohio coal mining," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 211-220, July.
    11. Riccardo Fiorentini & Roberto Tamborini, 2001. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Italy: The Credit Channel and a Missing Ring," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 60(1), pages 1-42, June.
    12. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista & Julio R. Escandon, 2003. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Credit and Aggregate Demand," Macroeconomics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Composition and Real Activity," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(1), pages 177-213, March.
    14. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    15. Abuka, Charles & Alinda, Ronnie K. & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2019. "Monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries: Loan applications, rates, and real effects," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 185-202.
    16. Adolfo Barajas & Enrique López & Hugo Oliveros, 2001. "¿Por qué en Colombia el Crédito al Sector Privado es tan Reducido," Borradores de Economia 185, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2000. "Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: A model of the credit channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1931-1950, December.
    18. Hurlin, Christophe & Kierzenkowski, Rafal, 2007. "Credit market disequilibrium in Poland: Can we find what we expect?: Non-stationarity and the short-side rule," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 157-183, June.
    19. Wilbur John Coleman & Christian Gilles & Pamela Labadie, 1993. "Discount window borrowing and liquidity," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Nassios, Jason & Giesecke, James A. & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2020. "What impact do differences in financial structure have on the macro effects of bank capital requirements in the United States and Australia?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 429-446.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1995_006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.