IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp1994_011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Chaos and nonlinear dynamics: evidence from Finland

Author

Listed:
  • Takala, Kari
  • Virén, Matti

Abstract

This paper contains a set of tests for nonlinearities in economic time series.The tests correspond both to standard diagnostic tests and some new developments in testing nonlinearities.The latter test procedures make use of models in chaos theory, so-called long-memory models and some asymmetric adjustment models.Empirical tests are carried out with Finnish monthly data for ten macroeconomic time series covering the period 1920-1993.Test results support unambiguous the notion that there are strong nonlinearities in the data.The evidence for chaos, however, is weak.Nonlinearities are detected not only in a univariate setting but also in some preliminary investigations dealing with a multivariate case.Certain differences seem to exist between nominal and real variables in nonlinear behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1994. "Chaos and nonlinear dynamics: evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/1994, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1994_011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/211699/1/bof-rdp1994-011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramsey, James B & Sayers, Chera L & Rothman, Philip, 1990. "The Statistical Properties of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 991-1020, November.
    2. Ramsey, James B. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "The Statistical Properties Of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," Working Papers 88-10, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    4. Hsieh, David A, 1991. "Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
    5. Gerard A. Pfann & Franz C. Palm, 1993. "Asymmetric Adjustment Costs in Non-linear Labour Demand Models for the Netherlands and U.K. Manufacturing Sectors," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 397-412.
    6. Frank, Murray Z & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. "Chaotic Dynamics in Economic Time-Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 103-133.
    7. A. I. McLeod & W. K. Li, 1983. "Diagnostic Checking Arma Time Series Models Using Squared‐Residual Autocorrelations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, July.
    8. Spanos,Aris, 1986. "Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521269124, November.
    9. Friedman, Milton, 1993. "The "Plucking Model" of Business Fluctuations Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 171-177, April.
    10. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    11. Mullineux, Andy & Peng, WenSheng, 1993. "Nonlinear Business Cycle Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 41-83.
    12. Ramsey, James B. & Rothman, Philip, 1988. "Characterization Of The Time Irreversibility Of Economic Time Series: Estimators And Test Statistics," Working Papers 88-39, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1995. "Testing nonlinear dynamics, long memory and chaotic behaviour with macroeconomic data," Research Discussion Papers 9/1995, Bank of Finland.
    3. Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1994. "Chaos and nonlinear dynamics : evidence from Finland," Research Discussion Papers 11/1994, Bank of Finland.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1994_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1995. "Testing nonlinear dynamics, long memory and chaotic behaviour with macroeconomic data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/1995, Bank of Finland.
    6. Ignacio Olmeda & Joaquin Pérez, 1995. "Non-linear dynamics and chaos in the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(2), pages 217-248, May.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1993_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Takala, Kari & Viren, Matti, 1996. "Chaos and nonlinear dynamics in financial and nonfinancial time series: Evidence from Finland," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 155-172, August.
    9. Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1993. "Testing nonlinearities with Finnish historical time series," Research Discussion Papers 15/1993, Bank of Finland.
    10. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
    11. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    12. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, November.
    13. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2010. "A low-dimension portmanteau test for non-linearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 231-245, October.
    14. Francisco Estrada & Víctor Guerrero & Carlos Gay-García & Benjamín Martínez-López, 2013. "A cautionary note on automated statistical downscaling methods for climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 263-276, September.
    15. Spanos, Aris, 1995. "On theory testing in econometrics : Modeling with nonexperimental data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 189-226, May.
    16. Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1993. "Testing nonlinearities with Finnish historical time series," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1993, Bank of Finland.
    17. Sofie Balcaen & Sophie Manigart & Hubert Ooghe, 2011. "From distress to exit: determinants of the time to exit," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 407-446, August.
    18. Chia-Ying Chan & Iftekhar Hasan & Chih-Yung Lin, 2021. "Agency cost of CEO perquisites in bank loan contracts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1221-1258, May.
    19. Benjamin L. Collier & Andrew F. Haughwout & Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel‐Kerjan, 2020. "Firms’ Management of Infrequent Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1329-1359, September.
    20. Giau Bui, Dien & Chen, Yehning & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2021. "Risk-taking of bank CEOs and corporate innovation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    21. Santiago Lago-Penas, 2006. "Capital grants and regional public investment in Spain: fungibility of aid or crowding-in effect?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1737-1747.
    22. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    23. Michael Pfaffermayr & Matthias Stöckl & Hannes Winner, 2013. "Capital Structure, Corporate Taxation and Firm Age," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 109-135, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1994_011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.