IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp1992_008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating conditional betas and the price of risk for a thin stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Malkamäki, Markku

Abstract

This paper examines the Sharpe-Lintner Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in which time-varying-parameter models are altemative to the static market model. Prior evidence does not support the CAPM and suggests that market risk is not priced or the price of the beta risk is significantly negative for a thin European stock market, e.g. the Finnish stock market. We show that this phenomenom is due to static ordinary least squares beta estimates that are spurious. We reduce the errors-in-variables problem by estimating the firm-specific betas using the Kalman filter technique and employ the forecasted beta values in cross-sectional analysis. It tums out that in our analysis of pooled data the sign for caefficient of the price of risk becomes positive and we are no longer able to reject the mean-variance efficiency of the market index. The data cavers all Finnish cammon stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange throughout the years 1972-1989.

Suggested Citation

  • Malkamäki, Markku, 1992. "Estimating conditional betas and the price of risk for a thin stock market," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/1992, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1992_008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/211637/1/bof-rdp1992-008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Shanken, J. & Weinstein, M.I., 1990. "Macroeconomics Variables and Asset Pricing : Further Results," Papers 91-05, Rochester, Business - Managerial Economics Research Center.
    4. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    5. Dimson, E & Marsh, P R, 1983. "The Stability of UK Risk Measures and the Problem of Thin Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 753-783, June.
    6. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    7. Ng, Lilian, 1991. "Tests of the CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1507-1521, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1992_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Malkamäki, Markku, 1992. "Estimating conditional betas and the price of risk for a thin stock market," Research Discussion Papers 8/1992, Bank of Finland.
    3. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1992_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Conditional coskewness and asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 91-119, January.
    6. Bjorn Hansson & Peter Hordahl, 1998. "Testing the conditional CAPM using multivariate GARCH-M," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 377-388.
    7. Malkamäki, Markku, 1992. "Conditional betas and the price of risk in a thin asset market : A sensitivity analysis," Research Discussion Papers 9/1992, Bank of Finland.
    8. Tang, Gordon Y. N. & Shum, Wai Cheong, 2004. "The risk-return relations in the Singapore stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 179-195, April.
    9. Jon Wongswan, 2003. "Contagion: an empirical test," International Finance Discussion Papers 775, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Malkamäki, Markku, 1992. "Conditional betas and the price of risk in a thin asset market: A sensitivity analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/1992, Bank of Finland.
    11. Richard T. Baillie & Fabio Calonaci & George Kapetanios, 2019. "Hierarchical Time Varying Estimation of a Multi Factor Asset Pricing Model," Working Papers 879, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Attiya Yasmeen Javid, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE Research Report 2000:3, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    13. Manuel Monge & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "The Lithium Industry and Analysis of the Beta Term Structure of Oil Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, December.
    14. João M. Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2019. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the Euro Area, the US and the UK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 139-176, June.
    15. Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The specification of conditional expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 573-637, December.
    16. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Young-Hye Cho & Robert F. Engle, 1999. "Time-Varying Betas and Asymmetric Effect of News: Empirical Analysis of Blue Chip Stocks," NBER Working Papers 7330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Engel, Charles & Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A. & Rodrigues, Anthony P., 1995. "Tests of conditional mean-variance efficiency of the U.S. stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 3-18, March.
    19. Anders Johansson, 2009. "An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 299-320.
    20. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Fundamental determinants of national equity market returns: A perspective on conditional asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1625-1665, December.
    21. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 355-380, June.
    22. Liu, Weimin & Luo, Di & Zhao, Huainan, 2016. "Transaction costs, liquidity risk, and the CCAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 126-145.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1992_008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.