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What determines stock market behavior in Russia and other emerging countries?

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  • Korhonen, Iikka
  • Peresetsky, Anatoly

Abstract

We empirically test the dependence of the Russian stock market on the world stock market and world oil prices in the period 1997:10-2012:02. We also consider three Eastern European stock markets (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary), as well as two markets outside Europe (Turkey and South Africa). We apply a rolling regression to identify periods when oil prices or stock indices in the US and Japan were important. Surprisingly, oil prices are not significant for the Russian stock market after 2006. A TGARCH-BEKK model is employed to assess the degree of correlation between markets, taking into account the global market stochastic trend. We find that correlation between markets increased between 2000 and 2012. Growth was especially high in Eastern European markets during 2004-2006, which is likely connected with the EU accession of these countries in 2004.

Suggested Citation

  • Korhonen, Iikka & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "What determines stock market behavior in Russia and other emerging countries?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2013_004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan, 2005. "The impact of news, oil prices, and global market developments on Russian financial markets," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 373-393, April.
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    3. Mirzosharif JALOLOV & Tatsuyoshi MIYAKOSHI, 2005. "Who Drives The Russian Financial Markets?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(3), pages 374-395, September.
    4. Peresetsky, Anatoly & Ivanter, Alexander, 2000. "Interaction of the Russian Financial Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(1-2), pages 103-140.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    6. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 241-256, June.
    7. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What determines the behavior of the Russian stock market," MPRA Paper 41508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Fedorova, Elena, 2011. "Transfer of financial risk in emerging eastern European stock markets: A sectoral perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
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    Cited by:

    1. Korhonen, Iikka & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Extracting global stochastic trend from non-synchronous data," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian stock market; oil; financial market integration; stock market returns; news; emerging markets; transition economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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