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Individual Behavior and Policy Response in Times of a Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Robert J. Sonora

    (Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Montana, Missoula)

  • Josip Tica

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the intricate dynamics between policy stringency, human behavior, and pandemic outcomes during the COVID-19 crisis. Drawing inspiration from the ’Taylor rule’, we develop and estimate a theoretical C-SI (Cases - Stringency Index) model, providing policymakers with an intuitive framework to assess the efficacy of economic and health policies enacted in response to the pandemic. Our C-SI model considers the interplay between formal stringency measures and individual behaviors, recognizing the nuanced factors influencing decisions to adhere to restrictions. Through rigorous theoretical development and empirical testing using a three-stage least squares (3SLS) approach we investigate the endogenous interaction between policy instruments, individual behavior, and pandemic outcomes. Our results underscore the significant influence of public interest in COVID-related topics, or the ”fear factor,” on individual behavior, suggesting that this factor rivals/complement formal stringency measures in shaping behavior. We identify a clear trade-off between economic and health outcomes and we observe a nonlinear relationship between stringency and mobility, indicating that changes in stringency measures do not consistently correlate with changes in behavior. Our analysis reveals no evidence of stringency policy endogeneity while we find strong evidence that vaccination rates exert a strong influence on policymakers across all analyzed states.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Sonora & Josip Tica, 2024. "Individual Behavior and Policy Response in Times of a Pandemic," EFZG Working Papers Series 2402, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:2402
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Sonora & Martina Gottwald-Belinić, 2023. "Does individual behavior converge to policy recommendations in times of pandemic? Evidence from COVID-19 in US states," EFZG Working Papers Series 2304, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
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      More about this item

      Keywords

      COVID-19; policy effectiveness; policy-maker preferences; endogeneity;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
      • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
      • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
      • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
      • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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