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Makroekonomski učinci diskrecijskih izmjena u sustavu poreza na dodanu vrijednost (PDV) u Hrvatskoj: narativni pristup

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić

    (Hrvatska narodna banka)

  • Ana Grdović Gnip

    (Univerza na Primorskem Fakulteta za matematiko, naravoslovje in informacijske tehnologije)

  • Hrvoje Šimović

    (Sveučilište u Zagrebu Ekonomski fakultet)

Abstract

Kao najizdašniji porezni oblik u hrvatskom poreznom sustavu porez na dodanu vrijednost (PDV) je od uvođenja 1998. godine zabilježio niz diskrecijskih izmjena. Neke izmjene su bile motivirane potrebom za fiskalnom konsolidacijom, neke prilagodbom zakonodavstvu EU, a neke željom nositelja politike da ublaže učinke njegove regresivnosti ili da potaknu pojedinu gospodarsku aktivnost. S obzirom na važnu ulogu PDV-a u poreznom sustavu i gospodarstvu te sklonost nositelja politike da relativno često pristupaju izmjenama u sustavu PDV-a, važno je istražiti makroekonomske učinke takvih izmjena. U ovom radu se istražuje učinak diskrecijskih izmjena u sustavu PDV-a na kretanje BDP-a i osobne potrošnje, na temelju tzv. narativnog pristupa. Narativni pristup, koji podrazumijeva identifikaciju egzogenih poreznih izmjena na temelju analize službenih dokumenata i procjena fiskalnog učinka diskrecijskih izmjena, osigurava nepristrane procjene učinaka PDV-a na odabrane makroekonomske varijable. Pritom se u ovom radu originalni Romer i Romer (2010) pristup prilagođava kako bi se u analizu uključili i učinci eksternih šokova koji u slučaju Hrvatske, kao malog otvorenog gospodarstva, značajno utječu na makroekonomska kretanja.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Ana Grdović Gnip & Hrvoje Šimović, 2020. "Makroekonomski učinci diskrecijskih izmjena u sustavu poreza na dodanu vrijednost (PDV) u Hrvatskoj: narativni pristup," EFZG Working Papers Series 2002, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:2002
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    Keywords

    PDV; egzogene diskrecijske porezne izmjene; narativni pristup; BDP; potrošnja; Hrvatska;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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