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Karakter fiskalne politike i politička ekonomija fiskalne konsolidacije u Hrvatskoj u post-kriznom razdoblju

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić

    (Erste&Steiermärkische Bank)

  • Višeslav Raos

    (Fakultet političkih znanosti Sveučilišta u Zagrebu)

Abstract

U ovom radu se na temelju podataka o ciklički prilagođenom primarnom proračunskom saldu (CAPB) analizira karakter fiskalne politike te snaga fiskalne konsolidacije u post-kriznom razdoblju. Dodatno, analiziraju se temeljna obilježja fiskalne konsolidacije, s posebnim naglaskom na rashode proračuna, budući da u polit-ekonomskom smislu oko ovih kategorija postoji najveći sukob između nositelja fiskalne politike i različitih interesnih skupina. Rezultati analize pokazuju da su sve vlade, osim vlade Jadranke Kosor, vodile restriktivnu procikličku fiskalnu politiku te da je najveća fiskalna konsolidacija provedena u vrijeme socijaldemokratske vlade Zorana Milanovića, kada je CAPB poboljšan za 5,7 postotnih bodova BDP-a, što otvara i pitanje je li ova činjenica jedan od temeljnih razloga za gubitak parlamentarnih izbora 2015. godine. Također, analiza je pokazala da je veliki dio fiskalne konsolidacije proveden kroz smanjenje kapitalnih investicija, iako se radi o produktivnoj kategoriji rashoda koja je mogla imati važnu ulogu u ispunjavanju stabilizacijske funkcije fiskalne politike. Analiza ekonomske politike vlade pokazala je kako nestabilne vlade, koje ovise o nizu manjih parlamentarnih aktera koji joj održavaju većinu, teško uspijevaju biti uspješne u fiskalnoj konsolidaciji. One vlade koje su najviše pozornosti pridavale fiskalnoj politici, bile su i najuspješnije u fiskalnoj konsolidaciji. Analiza akata Vlade i Sabora pokazala je kako su sve vlade bile sklone korištenju učestalih izmjena poreznog zakonodavstva kao instrumenta fiskalne politike.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Višeslav Raos, 2018. "Karakter fiskalne politike i politička ekonomija fiskalne konsolidacije u Hrvatskoj u post-kriznom razdoblju," EFZG Working Papers Series 1802, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:1802
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    File URL: http://web.efzg.hr/repec/pdf/Clanak%2018-02.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Arcabic & Frane Banic, 2021. "Characteristics of fiscal policy in Croatia: does it depend on the phase of the business cycle?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 433-457.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiskalna konsolidacija; politička ekonomija; kapacitet vlade; stabilnosti vlade; policy kapacitet; Hrvatska;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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