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Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data

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  • Ray Fair

Abstract

A method is proposed in this paper for predicting Electoral College victory probabilities from state probability data. A ranking assumption about dependencies across states is made that greatly simplifies the analysis. The method is used to analyze state probability data from the Intrade political betting market. The Intrade prices of various contracts are quite close to what would be expected under the ranking assumption. Under the joint hypothesis that the Intrade

Suggested Citation

  • Ray Fair, 2004. "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2406, Yale School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:wpaper:amz2406
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    File URL: https://repec.som.yale.edu/icfpub/publications/2406.pdf
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    1. Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
    2. Strömberg, David, 2002. "Optimal Campaigning in Presidential Elections: The Probability of Being Florida," Seminar Papers 706, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    3. Snyder, James M, 1989. "Election Goals and the Allocation of Campaign Resources," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 637-660, May.
    4. Edward H. Kaplan & Arnold Barnett, 2003. "A New Approach to Estimating the Probability of Winning the Presidency," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(1), pages 32-40, February.
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