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Der "Overconfidence Bias" und seine Konsequenzen in Finanzmärkten

Author

Listed:
  • Laschke, Andreas

    (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

  • Weber, Martin

    (Lehrstuhl für ABWL, Finanzwirtschaft, insb. Bankbetriebslehre)

Abstract

Individuen überschätzen häufig ihre Kenntnisse und Fähigkeiten oder die Qualität ihrer Information. Bei Entscheidungen unter Unsicher-heit kann dies zu einer verzerrten Wahrnehmung der Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeit einer Entscheidung und im Zusammen-hang mit Prognosen zu einer Überschätzung der Wahr-scheinlichkeit, daß die zu progno-stizierende Größe innerhalb eines bestimmten Werte-bereiches liegt, führen. In der an-gelsächsischen Literatur wird dieses Phänomen als "Overconfidence Bias" bezeichnet. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt einen Einblick in die verschiedenen Teilaspekte des Phä-nomens, systematisiert die Entstehungsursachen des "Overconfidence Bias" und unter-sucht dessen Konsequenzen in Finanzmärkten.

Suggested Citation

  • Laschke, Andreas & Weber, Martin, 1999. "Der "Overconfidence Bias" und seine Konsequenzen in Finanzmärkten," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-63, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    • Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:99-63
    Note: Diese Arbeit geht aus dem Forschungsprogramm der 'Behavioral Finance Group' der Universität Mannheim (Internetadresse: http://www.behavioral-finance.de) hervor. Deren Mitgliedern sowie Mitgliedern des Sonderfor-schungsbereiches 504 möchten wir an dieser Stelle für zahlreiche Anregungen und Diskussionsbeiträge danken.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Gysler & Jamie Kruse & Renate Schubert, 2002. "Ambiguity and Gender Differences in Financial Decision Making: An Experimental Examination of Competence and Confidence Effects," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 02/23, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.

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